Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e58821b704af02777641320fe35d0155e15a8e6f42d1c3413b49234e245b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 8,198$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 0c | 2,442$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,800$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,731$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 69c | 1,566$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…2c8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,364$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 28c | 1,160$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.94 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,010$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.2 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 765.34$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.23 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 744.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 43c | 732$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 650.64$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 50c | 580$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 57c | 579.98$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 19c | 571.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 18c | 568.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…a02cbacked No | 73c | 540.41$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 528.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 517.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 26c | 475$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 38c | 449.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 23c | 443.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 57c | 438$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…b08dbacked Yes | 20c | 436.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 20c | 433.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…111cbacked No | 71c | 433$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 396.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 377.03$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 364.68$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 41c | 351.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 58c | 329$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 42c | 329$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed No | 74c | 298.39$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 57c | 294$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 286.89$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed No | 64c | 285$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…2925backed Yes | 28c | 268.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…a6aabacked No | 56c | 261.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 59c | 253.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1483backed Yes | 33c | 240.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 45c | 233.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked No | 60c | 229.92$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 80c | 220.37$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…fe95backed No | 77c | 219.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…2f0dbacked No | 58c | 214.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…5de0backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 7c | 194.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 188.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 10c | 184.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 30c | 178.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…f762backed No | 57c | 176.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 6c | 176.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed Yes | 18c | 168.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 33c | 154.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 141.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5841…cd1dbacked Yes | 48c | 139.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1699backed No | 74c | 135.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…cadebacked No | 71c | 131.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 42c | 129.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 78c | 128.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…9d1bbacked Yes | 35c | 128.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 79c | 121.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 34c | 116.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 20c | 108.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…7d59backed No | 57c | 105.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…4f69backed Yes | 46c | 104.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…c6fabacked No | 78c | 100.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…0c70backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…1031backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…9e77backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 34c | 94.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…97a5backed No | 68c | 93.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 23c | 79.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…d278backed No | 54c | 77.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 54c | 74.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…5609backed No | 56c | 71.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…836dbacked No | 73c | 69.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…8853backed No | 57c | 69.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 61c | 68.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 23c | 62.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aac…6271backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.