Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa1a019d6e3ee284805ffdbee54b8a39a220c32a9bb1962bef81436ffbd87426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55f1…8766backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 74c | 2,702$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.73 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 2,089$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 41c | 1,114$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 59c | 970.23$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…6aa3backed No | 62c | 898.99$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 58c | 860$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 42c | 730$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 42c | 689$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 59c | 634$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 37c | 599.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 62c | 554.69$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.21 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 41c | 546$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 59c | 528$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 37c | 507$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 500$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.75 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 63c | 469$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 60c | 466$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 24c | 453$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 38c | 440.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.81 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 41c | 428$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.84 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 59c | 364$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes | 41c | 356.27$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 44c | 342$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…e2b8backed No | 59c | 341.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…92e1backed No | 61c | 325.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed Yes | 47c | 319.21$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 38c | 314.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 58c | 307$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…7a07backed No | 66c | 298.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 40c | 278.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.18 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 60c | 266.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed No | 61c | 261$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 39c | 261$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 54c | 254$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 46c | 254$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…ab8abacked Yes | 44c | 251.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 41c | 244.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 38c | 236.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 37c | 227$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…9a32backed Yes | 46c | 218.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 40c | 204.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 200.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 37c | 200.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 40c | 195$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 182.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6dfdbacked No | 55c | 182.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…59d8backed Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…9a7cbacked No | 56c | 170$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…06adbacked No | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 59c | 169.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 78c | 168.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 42c | 166$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 58c | 166$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…72debacked No | 56c | 160.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 40c | 159.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 45c | 154.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 60c | 152$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 58c | 142$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 42c | 142$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 137.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 39c | 136.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 44c | 133.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 44c | 131.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 57c | 129.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 124.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 38c | 120.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…0088backed Yes | 51c | 116.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 59c | 116$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 112.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked No | 62c | 100.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed Yes | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 48c | 93.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 59c | 84.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…dabbbacked No | 61c | 81.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed Yes | 36c | 70.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 42c | 65.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…7d07backed Yes | 38c | 61.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed Yes | 36c | 56.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes | 45c | 55.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.