Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe13d976b6b972866c4890cb360ef796d232ff1cd7a73114f9b6506658be8501a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $510,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c9…e751backed No | 55c | 27,400$15,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,335.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…ff23backed Yes | 45c | 27,400$12,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,335.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…f03bbacked Yes | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5828…ef53backed No | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8a…5771backed Yes | 49c | 4,649$2,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…c492backed No | 51c | 4,649$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…0ababacked No | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…7d79backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,780$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,462$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.91 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,267$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.66 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 9c | 1,265$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,090$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.58 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,064$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…f08abacked Yes | 56c | 1,042$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 49c | 1,023$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 48c | 951$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.52 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 54c | 932$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 54c | 928.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…9c66backed Yes | 3c | 919.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 24c | 892.89$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 46c | 873$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 62c | 864$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked Yes | 52c | 855$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 38c | 791$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 43c | 784$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…f1b0backed Yes | 49c | 773.47$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 13c | 769.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 56c | 747$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 51c | 740$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 51c | 672.46$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 24c | 667.67$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 635.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 58c | 631.98$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9efebacked No | 68c | 619.34$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 26c | 611.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 40c | 599.96$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…5d09backed No | 73c | 597.82$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 44c | 559$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…24c3backed Yes | 51c | 544.84$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 24c | 537.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 46c | 527$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 49c | 500.92$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 499.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 42c | 496$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 58c | 496$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 58c | 488$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 42c | 488$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked No | 55c | 476.91$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.91 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 67c | 458$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 33c | 458$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 447.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 51c | 426$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 47c | 419.93$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…8ce7backed No | 47c | 409.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…16bdbacked No | 50c | 372$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 13c | 369.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 44c | 367$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 49c | 367$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 350.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 41c | 345.35$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 28c | 319.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 44c | 316$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 58c | 305$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…a59bbacked Yes | 19c | 298.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 49c | 291$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 72c | 284.94$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 11c | 280.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 61c | 278.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 42c | 275$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 58c | 258$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 56c | 253$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 52c | 247.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 51c | 224$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 51c | 212.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 15c | 202.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 58c | 195.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6b…66b9backed Yes | 52c | 192.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…5060backed No | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…e2acbacked Yes | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed No | 53c | 188.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 44c | 187$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 56c | 186.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…6162backed Yes | 56c | 177.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed No | 79c | 171.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 170.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 53c | 169.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 52c | 168$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 62c | 162.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297e…1b2cbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…46dbbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf976…0fcabacked No | 63c | 158.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.