Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b3ec3b0eda10cc518b14617cb1f9e1bc9160ee784c1ae932997d560f06b395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…0fffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,737$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…03b5backed No | 50c | 4,063$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…bf2ebacked Yes | 50c | 4,063$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 39c | 3,500$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 40c | 2,931$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.56 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 3c | 2,897$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 40c | 2,831$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 40c | 2,530$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.09 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e81…5ad8backed Yes | 0c | 2,077$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,950$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.43 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 60c | 1,784$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,624$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 74c | 1,487$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.01 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,093$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…e8dabacked Yes | 2c | 989.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 64c | 985.65$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.63 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9efebacked No | 65c | 985.21$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 48c | 952.22$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.07 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 56c | 865$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 841.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 772.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 43c | 713.59$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…16bdbacked Yes | 40c | 690$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 41c | 639.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.49 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…dea8backed No | 57c | 508.39$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 54c | 459.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 44c | 451$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 50c | 403.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccf…f9d0backed No | 55c | 400$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 56c | 396.35$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 49c | 377.44$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 44c | 372$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…c624backed No | 62c | 371.73$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 44c | 352.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 47c | 316.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed No | 71c | 307.07$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 54c | 299.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…145abacked No | 77c | 290.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 280.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 273.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc027…7ea4backed No | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…b248backed No | 57c | 252.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 40c | 252.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 36c | 241.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed No | 57c | 220.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…52e5backed Yes | 47c | 214.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 45c | 210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cc…7660backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…f375backed No | 55c | 193.74$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 188.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 52c | 188.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…5bd3backed No | 55c | 180.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…032dbacked No | 56c | 180.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 42c | 174.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…6fabbacked Yes | 54c | 174.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 10c | 173.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 59c | 169.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 26c | 155.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 8c | 148.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…6a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 146.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 56c | 141.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 59c | 141.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…9061backed No | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283f…807fbacked No | 73c | 137.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…9a7fbacked No | 54c | 136.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e96…ec92backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…5b7fbacked No | 71c | 130.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…4fa8backed No | 62c | 113.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 43c | 112$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed No | 59c | 110.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed No | 73c | 107.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…23c8backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…51d7backed No | 52c | 95.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 88.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…bfb5backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 85.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…b34ebacked Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…8785backed No | 60c | 83.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…d366backed Yes | 24c | 83.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 58c | 79.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…a9a1backed No | 59c | 78.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 43c | 75.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 21c | 74.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…27f0backed No | 55c | 72.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 56c | 71.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 43c | 70.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.