Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7525b9102dba10c32eb65665cac86c3e83b1e40ed910e8a0ce2d0fed7d85d1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 6,830$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…8e6dbacked No | 1c | 2,848$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked No | 61c | 1,629$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked No | 59c | 1,263$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 57c | 1,185$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 57c | 994.46$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 834.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 43c | 834$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 1c | 814.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 45c | 805.39$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.54 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 48c | 804$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 732.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 67c | 721.95$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.72 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 55c | 717$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 44c | 698$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 40c | 648.01$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.51 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 59c | 586.02$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 43c | 523$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 65c | 506.85$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 52c | 473$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 62c | 466.92$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.05 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 52c | 462$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 45c | 450$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 46c | 439.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed No | 2c | 438.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 56c | 436$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 43c | 409.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 405.78$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 45c | 395$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 67c | 391.9$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed No | 65c | 379.05$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 370.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…ee2cbacked No | 60c | 341.8$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 58c | 334.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.09 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 34c | 318.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.36 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 71c | 314.86$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 35c | 310.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 37c | 302$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 71c | 301.96$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 35c | 295.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.32 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 52c | 289$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 45c | 284.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed No | 26c | 280.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 35c | 279.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.53 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed Yes | 47c | 268.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 56c | 262$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 48c | 253$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed Yes | 50c | 251$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 50c | 251$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 40c | 248.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 65c | 238.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 43c | 232.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 71c | 230$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 48c | 225$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 43c | 225$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 47c | 219$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 53c | 219$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 210.79$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 54c | 205.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 202.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 196.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 58c | 191.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 45c | 179$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 63c | 178$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 58c | 172.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 51c | 172.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…a3b4backed No | 49c | 171.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 55c | 171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 166.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 55c | 155.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 33c | 155.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 26c | 155.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…2925backed Yes | 49c | 153.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…5a68backed No | 67c | 145.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked No | 44c | 142.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 34c | 140.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 54c | 137.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 55c | 136$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 29c | 129.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf174…d052backed No | 39c | 127.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 63c | 124$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…1031backed Yes | 45c | 110.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 102.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1483backed Yes | 49c | 101.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…9f59backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…330abacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 41c | 98.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 50c | 98.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 45c | 95.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…c6fabacked No | 66c | 94.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…2c6dbacked Yes | 66c | 94.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.