Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1783bba581714830ad20944526564dc0dc3876fa6e91a9cf3c7b4479e8ff8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 10,772$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.54 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 54c | 6,064$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.78 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,204$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…a8cabacked No | 0c | 2,987$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…fe46backed Yes | 54c | 2,540$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 30c | 2,337$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 33c | 2,107$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 47c | 1,641$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.69 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,620$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.78 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 67c | 1,498$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 64c | 1,477$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 1,407$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.86 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 36c | 1,377$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.72 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed Yes | 37c | 1,363$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 61c | 1,239$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.51 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 54c | 1,238$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.14 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 78c | 988.59$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.31 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 31c | 987.39$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 65c | 972.23$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.3 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 43c | 954$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 76c | 930.97$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 54c | 901.84$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.74 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5668backed Yes | 36c | 823.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 60c | 795$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 49c | 757.7$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.1 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 48c | 724.62$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 71c | 699.06$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 38c | 666.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.53 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 56c | 663.23$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 51c | 633.06$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.86 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 48c | 626.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.22 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 619.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.17 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15c…5a51backed Yes | 78c | 614.97$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 51c | 612.44$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 56c | 606.67$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 70c | 606.06$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.34 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 40c | 592$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked No | 69c | 579.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 27c | 556.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.49 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 23c | 519.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 35c | 508.36$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.6 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 57c | 504$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 55c | 469.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.39 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 67c | 461.53$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 55c | 461$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Yes | 45c | 458.37$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.37 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 50c | 448.73$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 58c | 447$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 42c | 423$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 52c | 419.25$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 44c | 416$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 400$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 45c | 393$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 387.11$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…aa96backed No | 65c | 384.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…283fbacked Yes | 59c | 378.73$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 20c | 374.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 44c | 365.75$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…10eabacked No | 55c | 365.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…0347backed Yes | 39c | 359.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 357.87$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 58c | 354.21$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 62c | 347$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 38c | 347$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…6015backed Yes | 55c | 337.76$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 56c | 336.39$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 39c | 333.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.98 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 44c | 330$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 329.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…adcabacked No | 26c | 326.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…b4a1backed Yes | 57c | 314.22$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 56c | 308.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 64c | 308.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…4bbebacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 56c | 296$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…a175backed Yes | 20c | 290.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +144%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 42c | 289$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 72c | 276.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 57c | 276$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 18c | 259.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 39c | 253$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 61c | 253$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 36c | 249.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 49c | 247.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 62c | 242$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes | 41c | 238.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 25c | 236.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 236.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 39c | 233.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked No | 58c | 233$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 51c | 228.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 51c | 206.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 40c | 203$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.