TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe144…030bbacked Yes54c1,310$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes42c1,291$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.392254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No52c1,110$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes48c1,103$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed No52c876$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.521258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes60c826.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.662352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes42c676$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.081838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes46c629$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845f…c13bbacked No60c586.9$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No58c564$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.121369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+105.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed No54c563$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.021546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes48c550$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2861154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No61c544$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.842630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked No57c523$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes40c400$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.297226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No45c380$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.26448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed No57c351$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes39c349.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes59c339.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.613672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No23c330$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes39c306$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.661250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b21…a8b3backed No47c302.72$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed No56c272$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes44c272$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.322123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1212…9aeebacked No60c266.81$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes48c259$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.682737%10 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No51c257.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed No47c243.45$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.381540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b8…5127backed Yes69c214.47$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.472157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c207.89$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c199.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc9d…930fbacked No63c199.69$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264914.3%7 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No58c196$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.681560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No59c188.48$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.84560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c184.17$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a6…4748backed Yes55c181.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+232.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes45c176.53$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5616433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90ab…f490backed Yes55c176.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No18c176$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.684928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ae…2c6bbacked No59c169.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002725.9%7 W · 20 L-8.6wins-0.32per pick58cpaid-53.2%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xf459…0749backed No60c162.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes46c159.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes46c157.93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.669942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x431c…4bbdbacked No38c152$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No20c143.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2415951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No54c135$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.91540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No48c104.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x722c…206bbacked No52c96.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…9cb4backed No52c95.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes43c90$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.316046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd27…2807backed No51c85.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.485349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e77…3273backed Yes42c84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.72850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0113440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1857…6b37backed No50c78.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4a…20cbbacked No52c77.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No54c74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13d6…d22abacked No56c71.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No56c69.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.193036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.842948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes41c64.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.221963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+99.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes47c63.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No45c63.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.184126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b37…8722backed No22c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x706a…0d4abacked No60c53.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.171566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5352…e20ebacked No29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.512330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes38c49.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No52c49.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.996735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe624…8839backed Yes41c48.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes41c46.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No47c46.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c93…6a5ebacked No23c45.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.586123%14 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes52c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.332345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No57c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9435…e478backed Yes55c43.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.361080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+110.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes47c42.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.984032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4451…eb72backed Yes49c41.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.094238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8440…a714backed Yes38c39.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.183748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd494…08b2backed No56c37.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…b304backed No55c36.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e91…f20cbacked No56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes46c32.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.563070%21 W · 9 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+96.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No36c32.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No39c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5631728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe9d6…f60dbacked Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72250%11 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94f2…25b0backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7bc…1da0backed Yes51c29.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No53c28.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes40c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No59c25.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.186066.7%40 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204e…2925backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9938…4a68backed No60c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+183.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe49…6828backed No54c21.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.625052%26 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.