Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29956076cc7ac9b8145b7655efba70902a9824a4c50fdb6c33dc36c770b9539c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,310$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 42c | 1,291$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 52c | 1,110$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 48c | 1,103$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 52c | 876$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 60c | 826.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.66 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 42c | 676$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 46c | 629$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 60c | 586.9$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 58c | 564$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 54c | 563$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 48c | 550$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 61c | 544$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.84 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 57c | 523$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 40c | 400$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 45c | 380$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 57c | 351$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 39c | 349.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 59c | 339.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 330$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 39c | 306$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…a8b3backed No | 47c | 302.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 56c | 272$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 44c | 272$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…9aeebacked No | 60c | 266.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 48c | 259$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 51c | 257.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…d7c0backed No | 47c | 243.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed Yes | 69c | 214.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 207.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked No | 63c | 199.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 58c | 196$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 59c | 188.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 184.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…4748backed Yes | 55c | 181.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 45c | 176.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…f490backed Yes | 55c | 176.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 176$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 59c | 169.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…0749backed No | 60c | 162.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 159.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 46c | 157.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked No | 38c | 152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 143.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 54c | 135$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 48c | 104.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…206bbacked No | 52c | 96.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…9cb4backed No | 52c | 95.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 51c | 85.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 42c | 84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…6b37backed No | 50c | 78.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…20cbbacked No | 52c | 77.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…d22abacked No | 56c | 71.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 56c | 69.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 41c | 64.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes | 47c | 63.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 45c | 63.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…8722backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…0d4abacked No | 60c | 53.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…e20ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 41c | 46.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 46.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 55c | 43.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 49c | 41.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8440…a714backed Yes | 38c | 39.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…08b2backed No | 56c | 37.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…b304backed No | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…f20cbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.9wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d6…f60dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…25b0backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1da0backed Yes | 51c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 53c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 59c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…2925backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9938…4a68backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 54c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.