Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa648a535294c753f890574bffc9fa9c8b03fb7bfce0a17ad82f52132984db40c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 8,487$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 6c | 7,639$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed Yes | 2c | 4,349$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,979$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,591$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.93 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,518$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…a699backed Yes | 56c | 2,450$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec26…2ce0backed Yes | 9c | 2,381$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,567$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 45c | 1,528$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,513$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.69 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 56c | 1,467$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.99 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…1779backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 46c | 1,292$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 56c | 1,274$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.05 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,271$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 10c | 1,261$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…91f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,259$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ad6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,194$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,149$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…5523backed Yes | 1c | 1,136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 62c | 1,117$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.56 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 999.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed Yes | 54c | 933.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 3c | 918.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…1d49backed Yes | 10c | 843.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 67c | 825.45$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.45 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 47c | 763$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 3c | 713.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 51c | 680.19$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 22c | 678.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 50c | 642$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 638.15$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.85 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 33c | 612.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.37 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 48c | 589$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.4 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 52c | 534.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 53c | 533$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 50c | 528$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…72b1backed Yes | 14c | 517.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 47c | 471.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235b…a470backed Yes | 18c | 464.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 42c | 463.03$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 3c | 420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5668backed Yes | 40c | 413.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 409.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…0aa5backed No | 46c | 400$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 399.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.62 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 383.25$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 55c | 366.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…fc1abacked No | 47c | 359.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 12c | 337.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…b330backed Yes | 11c | 332.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 29c | 328.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 52c | 324.51$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed No | 62c | 319.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1369…bd79backed No | 64c | 311.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 50c | 304.68$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 50c | 283.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…0347backed Yes | 33c | 267.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 61c | 258.54$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 54c | 258.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 250.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 46c | 249.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 60c | 243.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 241.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 44c | 239.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 53c | 230$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 44c | 226.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 24c | 214.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 42c | 212.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 54c | 209.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 49c | 201.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 28c | 192$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…0c8ebacked Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de9…c93dbacked No | 54c | 189.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 57c | 180.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 50c | 177.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 46c | 172.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…deb1backed Yes | 58c | 172.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 58c | 167.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 166.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 59c | 151.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes | 69c | 149.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…2255backed Yes | 44c | 148.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked No | 53c | 141.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…5e4abacked No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 48c | 128.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…059dbacked Yes | 67c | 128.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 42c | 120.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 44c | 114.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 50c | 109.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…9aeebacked No | 46c | 109.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 108.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 32c | 106.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 54c | 106.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.