Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80a319417cdfff76dd1c9b5c0cf08fbc506c70483af39a8c76fbee87dc1ed9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 6,150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked No | 2c | 5,263$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…f5b4backed No | 0c | 4,938$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 75c | 3,874$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.72 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 57c | 3,670$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.83 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…7382backed No | 2c | 2,968$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 7c | 2,282$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.32 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 23c | 1,679$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 20c | 1,511$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,311$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 35c | 1,287$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.97 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,286$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.73 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 1,202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…378ebacked No | 28c | 1,186$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 63c | 1,139$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 32c | 1,036$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.51 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…e633backed No | 78c | 991.33$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 53c | 974.87$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.67 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 6c | 945.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 41c | 857$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 42c | 855$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 51c | 799.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.94 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 788.13$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.05 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 784$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 779.9$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.08 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 21c | 751.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked No | 19c | 711.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 62c | 692$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…a02cbacked No | 76c | 686.39$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 42c | 624$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 58c | 621$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 37c | 620$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 50c | 599.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 38c | 598$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 580.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.59 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 49c | 543.68$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.77 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 39c | 504$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 61c | 504$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…a8c3backed No | 15c | 501.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 59c | 498$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0eb…e702backed Yes | 56c | 472.27$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 37c | 472.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 18c | 469.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 20c | 460$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.32 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 45c | 447.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 37c | 426$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 57c | 413.93$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.11 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 62c | 401.4$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.02 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 32c | 396.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 395.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked No | 7c | 395.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 392.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 57c | 384$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 43c | 384$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 47c | 361.21$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 18c | 360.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.67 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 59c | 359$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 357.76$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 58c | 357$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 20c | 350.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.66 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 22c | 350$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 29c | 346.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 58c | 335$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 42c | 332$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 33c | 307.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 7c | 296.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 11c | 283.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…2925backed Yes | 27c | 280$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 21c | 279.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 274.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 58c | 262$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 261.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…5813backed No | 66c | 254.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked No | 68c | 250$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 23c | 239.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 58c | 236$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…f762backed No | 57c | 226.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 51c | 215.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…d1c4backed Yes | 26c | 208.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 64c | 208.15$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Yes | 44c | 202.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 41c | 202$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…0ce2backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…612abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…916fbacked No | 49c | 194.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked No | 54c | 186.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…a6aabacked No | 69c | 181.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 70c | 179.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 171.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 62c | 166.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 46c | 165$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 14c | 162.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 41c | 156.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 56c | 152.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.