TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nets, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,096,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,199,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,096,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 803 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Nuggets70c499,891$349,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,693.5454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets30c352,762$106,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,737.7751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Nets30c329,031$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,999.7621057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets29c82,860$24,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,205.262,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe14…11eebacked Nuggets69c80,000$55,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,800955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets71c78,243$55,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,956.322,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Nets30c70,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Nets30c64,051$19,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,215.2259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Nuggets69c50,000$34,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,499.9623257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Nuggets75c42,000$31,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,586.089857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Nuggets69c39,999$27,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,399.6919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Nets31c37,006$11,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,471.8423245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b6…1807backed Nets31c33,765$10,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,555.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets26c33,441$8,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,814.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nets30c32,798$9,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,839.251,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets70c32,744$23,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,731.834,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nets10c31,528$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,228.121,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets70c29,104$20,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,751.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets70c28,811$20,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,573.182,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Nuggets69c28,312$19,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,654.631668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Nets0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Nuggets72c23,519$16,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,585.2813455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Nuggets69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Nets31c19,999$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.6814243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nuggets74c17,904$13,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,570.231,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Nuggets69c17,162$11,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,316.4539842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Nuggets71c15,000$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,35028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Nuggets70c15,000$10,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,55031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Nuggets69c15,000$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,65025753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2219…e243backed Nuggets69c14,512$10,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.815646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nuggets70c12,190$8,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,657.142,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nuggets69c11,713$8,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.0330845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Nets32c11,512$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.5177348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Nets28c11,000$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,07037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Nuggets68c10,364$7,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.33565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Nets0c10,239$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.635213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Nuggets66c10,082$6,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,438.2389444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Nuggets70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00071547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Nets30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Nuggets72c9,220$6,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.8255346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nuggets71c8,392$5,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.7172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nets2c7,773$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.91,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Nets27c7,274$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.9927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Nuggets72c7,200$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.9614055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Nuggets72c7,187$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.3621440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Nuggets70c7,143$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.863938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets30c7,040$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.034,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Nets30c6,935$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.4929055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Nets32c6,506$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08150838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets33c6,169$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Nets45c6,061$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.566758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Nuggets70c6,023$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.8236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Nets29c6,015$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.61225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Nuggets69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets72c5,985$4,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.85,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets27c5,555$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.7536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets23c5,508$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Nuggets69c5,446$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.3831644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Nuggets80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Nets28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Nets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Nuggets75c4,684$3,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.719640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Nets7c4,665$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.681435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+149.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nuggets70c4,480$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.091,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Nuggets72c4,373$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.136950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc14…b8efbacked Nets28c4,278$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Nuggets69c4,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2401040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Nets31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24014738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Nuggets72c3,962$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.8225554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e3…76bdbacked Nuggets69c3,781$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1721233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Nuggets70c3,646$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.838148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nuggets70c3,641$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.241,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Nets29c3,639$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.1138046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets70c3,633$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1062,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Nuggets70c3,419$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.576258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Nets28c3,387$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.437441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Nuggets71c3,310$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.8619653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Nets31c3,200$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99234645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Nets31c3,196$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.819838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8868…ec09backed Nuggets72c3,160$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.8811852.5%62 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Nets28c3,011$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.7748956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd50f…2b9abacked Nets24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72014733.3%49 W · 98 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Nets31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets30c2,968$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.633,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nuggets68c2,962$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets71c2,949$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.291,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked Nuggets68c2,929$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.7516550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Nuggets70c2,857$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.145945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bab…cf38backed Nets29c2,706$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.359859.2%58 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Nets31c2,657$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.1635747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Nuggets71c2,543$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.8325546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Nuggets70c2,471$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.4347856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Nuggets69c2,417$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.2620947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Nuggets70c2,416$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Nets31c2,354$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb10…8062backed Nets33c2,317$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1822034.1%75 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Nets7c2,285$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.971,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets67c2,222$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.931,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets11c2,157$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.723,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.