NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89a7107d6411ef808fd10073ec9b42a30d3d627cde63a1deff28fc1dd541a543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 6,314$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 48c | 5,999$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,648$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…126cbacked Over | 53c | 5,022$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 52c | 3,450$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.99 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 48c | 2,292$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 1,960$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.46 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 53c | 1,877$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.95 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,736$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.94 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 1,582$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 1,200$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Over | 52c | 1,159$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.48 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 48c | 624.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 584$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 49c | 559.18$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 465.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 54c | 371.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 54c | 314.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 53c | 248.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 200.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 55c | 161.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 156.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 21c | 148.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 74.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 66.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 52c | 56.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 48c | 55.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 53c | 49.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…59b1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…8cbdbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 48c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…6fa9backed Over | 52c | 19.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 53c | 19.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5this page
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Nets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nets won
- Terance Mann: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Terance Mann: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Terance Mann: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.