NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc592c595d55e467d02603bd6181d81731797c142aadaa6d93149520a44ff07e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 4,515$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.31 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 51c | 4,216$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 51c | 3,853$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.06 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 50c | 3,278$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.12 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Over | 50c | 2,546$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,241$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 1,910$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.2 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,498$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.13 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,259$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 38c | 1,160$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.2 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 1,012$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.24 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 882.34$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Over | 50c | 854$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…de14backed Under | 50c | 854$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 702.29$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.19 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…d3e2backed Over | 50c | 388.02$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.01 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 50c | 188.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 49c | 181.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…546dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…9659backed Over | 51c | 73.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…896cbacked Over | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb690…648bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 34.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 52c | 27.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 27.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…28dcbacked Under | 50c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…40eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5this page
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Nets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nets won
- Terance Mann: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Terance Mann: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Terance Mann: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.