NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04eea0fd14febfc7e48747bb941ef0519508faddb71f1c4edad49729dc16c322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 55c | 38,779$21,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,566.93 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 45c | 16,231$7,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,303.73 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 13,323$6,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,188.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 48c | 6,315$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 4,060$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Over | 47c | 2,689$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 51c | 1,916$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.9 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 53c | 1,692$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.24 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,692$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.24 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,579$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 1,244$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.8 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.99 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 1,081$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.54 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 911.95$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 45c | 888$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…fd0dbacked Over | 46c | 764.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.9 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 736.67$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.62 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Under | 54c | 646.44$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.36 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 606.38$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 567.85$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 45c | 504.77$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 293.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 45c | 243.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Over | 45c | 221.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 46c | 186.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 64c | 137.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 47c | 122.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 113.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 95.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 46c | 64.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3393…3519backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 56.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 55c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Over | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5this page
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Nets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nets won
- Terance Mann: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Terance Mann: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Terance Mann: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.