NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61cc16a782324d348c10ec48786942b98945541b1b4cd827733724df4c20ac46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 54c | 8,971$4,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,149.58 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,354$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 2,078$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 734.89$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.35 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 46c | 501.19$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.55 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Over | 46c | 400.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 303$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 252.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 216.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 193.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…3addbacked Over | 42c | 157$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Over | 43c | 148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…56a3backed Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 44c | 87.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…783bbacked Over | 43c | 78.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 56c | 63.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 46c | 53.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…59f1backed Over | 44c | 43.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…4035backed Over | 42c | 40.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 60c | 39.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 30.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…b077backed Over | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Over | 44c | 27.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5this page
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Nets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 209.5Over won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nets won
- Terance Mann: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Terance Mann: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Terance Mann: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.