Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd944f57cf6ea5104d724a7319944069b47ac2fe3cb1bd2369cdd632c60e5d181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 65c | 21,700$14,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,105 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 35c | 21,700$7,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,105 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…f400backed Yes | 32c | 7,690$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…a24cbacked No | 68c | 7,690$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,229.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 0c | 7,177$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked No | 0c | 4,121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 5c | 3,860$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.06 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 3,226$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 8c | 2,213$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.88 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 30c | 1,933$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 69c | 1,877$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,477$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 31c | 1,445$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 69c | 1,403$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 69c | 1,357$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 31c | 1,327$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 69c | 1,275$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 8c | 1,270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 74c | 1,183$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.25 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 27c | 1,156$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,119$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 31c | 1,096$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 70c | 1,044$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.63 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 70c | 1,017$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 69c | 984$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 69c | 980$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 73c | 967$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 73c | 954$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 31c | 950$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 73c | 916$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.68 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 67c | 915$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 70c | 886$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 31c | 877$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 31c | 863$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 70c | 847$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 31c | 829$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 31c | 828$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed No | 69c | 812$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 70c | 811$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 2c | 807.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 73c | 772$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 30c | 736$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 69c | 715$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 33c | 713$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 69c | 701$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…f08abacked No | 69c | 693$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked No | 73c | 691$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 27c | 686$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.78 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 27c | 680$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 27c | 674$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 76c | 665.42$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 31c | 659$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 69c | 659$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 27c | 653$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 70c | 649$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 31c | 642$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 69c | 642$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 30c | 625$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 69c | 612$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 31c | 611$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 32c | 605$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 34c | 594.02$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 31c | 575$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 32c | 544$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed Yes | 28c | 544$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 72c | 540$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 69c | 533$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 31c | 522$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 70c | 519$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…9b98backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 73c | 488$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 30c | 472$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 31c | 468$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 466.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 27c | 466$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 72c | 462$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed No | 67c | 461$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 70c | 460$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked Yes | 54c | 456.05$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 30c | 453$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 69c | 440$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 28c | 439$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 69c | 438$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 31c | 438$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes | 31c | 426$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…922ebacked No | 15c | 420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 69c | 412$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 68c | 401$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 31c | 399$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 69c | 399$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 29c | 394$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 69c | 390$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 70c | 375$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 28c | 371$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 362.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 28c | 359$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 72c | 321$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 31c | 321$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed Yes | 28c | 320$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.