Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf962cc29fc091557c7e09a73b5996296d73179330d78d3600d87be01f0b58406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d27…61aabacked Yes | 2c | 5,074$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 4c | 3,773$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 3,171$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,803$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6315backed Yes | 28c | 1,981$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 59c | 1,853$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.19 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,739$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 1,706$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 4c | 1,573$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…b224backed Yes | 2c | 1,461$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,415$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 16c | 1,216$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…6689backed No | 50c | 1,005$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 996.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 992.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 863.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…ce11backed Yes | 1c | 855.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 824.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 3c | 820.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 59c | 750$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.74 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…7ce9backed Yes | 4c | 742.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 55c | 726.69$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.22 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 701.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…6582backed No | 45c | 669.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked No | 30c | 661.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 26c | 657.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 13c | 492.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed Yes | 6c | 484.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 6c | 467.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 22c | 463.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…758bbacked Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 399.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 11c | 392.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed Yes | 4c | 352.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 340$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…6cc6backed Yes | 64c | 314.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…dc15backed Yes | 67c | 310.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 59c | 293.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 286.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 13c | 258.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed No | 51c | 257.92$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 239.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 38c | 232.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 16c | 225.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 68c | 220$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714ebacked Yes | 41c | 217.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…97cebacked Yes | 7c | 214.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…3187backed No | 54c | 201.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 30c | 200.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…efc2backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 194.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 184.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 176.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 58c | 173.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 40c | 172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 62c | 171.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…05e9backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed Yes | 54c | 166.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 47c | 157.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…2222backed Yes | 68c | 146.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…f8f2backed Yes | 61c | 145$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 53c | 143.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed Yes | 70c | 142.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…94d6backed No | 78c | 140.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…62c0backed Yes | 20c | 137.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 137.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…dbd8backed Yes | 79c | 136.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…860abacked Yes | 20c | 135.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 46c | 124.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…48cfbacked No | 79c | 122.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 31c | 117.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes | 72c | 116.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 17c | 114.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 110.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 17c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…f68abacked Yes | 10c | 109.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 48c | 108.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 49c | 101.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…2420backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b5a2backed No | 55c | 98.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 94.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07fb…10ecbacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 88.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed No | 50c | 86.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 15c | 83.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 23c | 81.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…f360backed No | 73c | 78.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.