Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f788e4619c0b02fd474eb9b3265b64ba4fd0974228a5f861953f0f59a98950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 3,469$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…580fbacked Yes | 73c | 2,495$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,998$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 64c | 1,874$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.95 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 3c | 1,544$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 982.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…a623backed Yes | 21c | 917.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 865.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 10c | 769.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 735.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 701.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed No | 64c | 700.87$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 33c | 674.93$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 613.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.98 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 552.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked Yes | 59c | 505.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked No | 69c | 412.68$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 23c | 403$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 64c | 400.91$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 51c | 391.79$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 79c | 388.3$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 380.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Yes | 20c | 358.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…d6e6backed No | 52c | 357.14$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 10c | 337.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 67c | 335.55$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 33c | 304.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 71c | 295.72$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed Yes | 71c | 283.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 22c | 261.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 24c | 247.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 9c | 247.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 49c | 243.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 36c | 242.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 241.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…e4e0backed No | 43c | 229.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked Yes | 26c | 221.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…69d5backed No | 37c | 216.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 58c | 212.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 35c | 207.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 197.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 54c | 184.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 36c | 182.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 181$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 69c | 179.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…7290backed No | 44c | 172.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 37c | 163.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 65c | 157.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 46c | 154.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b5a2backed No | 79c | 154.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…2d21backed Yes | 69c | 144.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 15c | 139.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 42c | 131.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 17c | 131.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 38c | 127.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 32c | 122.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 35c | 112.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…e680backed Yes | 55c | 110.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 108.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…68e9backed Yes | 19c | 102.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…486abacked No | 68c | 102.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 40c | 101.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 40c | 100.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…9e77backed Yes | 68c | 100.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9a6cbacked Yes | 66c | 98.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 49c | 91.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…75a4backed Yes | 64c | 91.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 23c | 89.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 50c | 87.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 87.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 50c | 84.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…6bb6backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Yes | 51c | 82.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…46dabacked No | 56c | 80.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…72d0backed No | 28c | 77.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 38c | 76.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 24c | 76.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 46c | 71.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 15c | 69.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 19c | 68.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…d258backed Yes | 66c | 67.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 21c | 66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…b421backed Yes | 34c | 64.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed No | 33c | 61.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 62c | 61.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc86…9f15backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…77e1backed Yes | 73c | 54.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed Yes | 18c | 54.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.