Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefaedf66cda6b6d3d5d22bfafbb11ac09c0ed37d6834127e69935e889d7049b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 2,327$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…d2b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,986$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,041$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…a63ebacked No | 75c | 823.46$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 702.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 76c | 628.18$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 600.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 531.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 521.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…75a4backed Yes | 63c | 413.1$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 22c | 368.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 7c | 329.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…93d7backed Yes | 13c | 300.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 284.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…ada8backed Yes | 24c | 273.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…805abacked Yes | 24c | 260.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 27c | 256.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 16c | 253.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 13c | 243.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 26c | 232.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 223.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…7e9cbacked No | 77c | 221.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 53c | 219.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 22c | 205$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 197.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 33c | 180.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 27c | 166.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 46c | 161.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 76c | 152.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked Yes | 27c | 148.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 19c | 144.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 74c | 135.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 133.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 65c | 131.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…03a2backed No | 73c | 122.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…abe4backed No | 80c | 112.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 63c | 112.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 29c | 111.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7b…2e17backed No | 75c | 107.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 14c | 102.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…007cbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 74c | 90.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 26c | 86.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 21c | 85.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 16c | 78.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 27c | 75.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 67c | 74.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 71.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 70.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…25b8backed No | 70c | 68.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked No | 67c | 65.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…6c8ebacked No | 76c | 63.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…b376backed Yes | 38c | 61.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…706dbacked No | 79c | 58.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…5aebbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 29c | 54.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c80…b0cfbacked No | 69c | 53.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes | 28c | 53.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 28c | 51.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…cb1fbacked Yes | 39c | 46.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…9998backed No | 74c | 45.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…4c49backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked No | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d6…1483backed No | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…87d3backed No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…5eddbacked No | 71c | 29.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…24ddbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…4865backed No | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…5941backed No | 61c | 18.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…b528backed No | 64c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…b248backed No | 76c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…a22dbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…0ff1backed No | 75c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.