TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe73a…b528

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+26.4%+$71.78
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+172.4%+$53.71
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+25%+$19.24
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+210.2%+$350.38
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25.7%+$7.18
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+60.1%+$18.04
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+33.7%+$33.73
Thunder vs. Heatbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+66%+$9.24
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.7%+$8.79
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+59.3%+$8.9
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+55.8%+$5.86
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+72.1%+$8.65
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+67.7%+$8.12
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+48.9%+$5.87
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.51
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$41.03
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.6
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+89.4%+$125.15
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32.4
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$46.5
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+80.1%+$8.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$17.56
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+30.3%+$20.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34.9%+$54.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+29.6%+$20.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.3%+$18.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$13.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$271.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.