TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,161,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,288,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,161,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Lakers17c524,998$88,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,499.7148343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Lakers26c270,214$70,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,899.9687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Spurs76c197,242$150,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,137.7692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Spurs75c127,501$95,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,102.71,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs79c124,262$98,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,177.854,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Lakers0c123,369$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9144821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Lakers0c118,438$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4416919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Lakers26c113,256$29,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,346.5127747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbf…6cf0backed Lakers27c111,500$29,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,987.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Lakers16c107,631$17,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,220.9929650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Spurs75c105,964$79,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,642.0636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs77c104,111$80,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,479.342,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Lakers0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Lakers0c86,682$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.327211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lakers23c81,908$18,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,897.351,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Lakers17c73,424$12,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,403.3715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Spurs79c70,077$55,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,682.8719560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lakers1c70,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Lakers15c67,951$10,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,192.6427424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Lakers1c64,883$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.0428616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs79c63,713$50,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,266.362,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Lakers18c60,366$10,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,893.7825138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Lakers27c60,000$16,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,299.9860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Spurs72c50,157$36,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,999.9519653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Lakers25c49,072$12,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,087.8851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Lakers5c45,800$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.581,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers2c43,493$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.051,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers0c40,224$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.531,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Spurs73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,80011547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Lakers7c34,921$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.9893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Lakers15c33,276$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.7114243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Lakers15c33,008$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.1438251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Lakers25c31,091$7,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,724.9740035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lakers6c30,610$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.521,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae55…0f4bbacked Lakers9c30,300$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Lakers16c30,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9966250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Lakers6c29,478$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.429424.5%23 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Spurs75c28,319$21,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,162.9819751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cce…e832backed Lakers7c25,106$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Lakers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Spurs74c24,411$18,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,245.8161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Spurs72c23,940$17,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,803.3245850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Lakers25c23,070$5,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,667.4821951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Spurs75c21,999$16,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,485.5359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs76c20,476$15,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,982.531,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Lakers29c20,268$5,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,851.2129250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f6…af37backed Lakers25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Lakers17c20,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Spurs72c20,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6008052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Lakers28c20,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.9913249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs79c18,853$14,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.233,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Spurs71c18,680$13,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,417.225753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Spurs74c18,142$13,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,744.6871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lakers6c18,000$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…0944backed Spurs72c17,466$12,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,890.591471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Spurs72c16,800$12,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7043129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Lakers28c16,799$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.652965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Lakers0c16,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers6c15,909$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.564,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs77c15,905$12,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,674.691,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb5…f7cebacked Lakers2c15,777$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs73c14,998$10,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.462,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Lakers19c14,508$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.920849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lakers16c14,466$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.152,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Lakers14c14,002$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.0124330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Lakers21c12,150$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lakers24c12,067$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.6632039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdda6…925abacked Lakers3c11,966$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.297135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Lakers29c11,329$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.4815435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Lakers25c11,111$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.7523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Spurs73c11,025$8,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.0295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Lakers12c11,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2909117.6%16 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Lakers37c10,025$3,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,709.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xded6…682abacked Lakers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Lakers16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Spurs63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,700666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Lakers25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Lakers25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Spurs79c9,889$7,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.358765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lakers6c9,700$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.51,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs73c9,668$7,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.372,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Lakers18c9,357$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.9618446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lakers9c8,781$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.711,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs76c8,466$6,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Spurs73c8,142$5,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.5158951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa31…924fbacked Spurs72c8,001$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.282070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Lakers25c8,000$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9907441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaff…f689backed Lakers28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2402231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lakers7c7,770$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.083,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Lakers23c7,675$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers11c7,217$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.582,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Lakers28c7,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01613148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lakers3c6,566$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x646e…3b1dbacked Lakers16c6,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406023.3%14 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers15c6,500$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.4935251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Lakers16c6,375$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed Lakers18c6,222$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10017723.7%42 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2100…930cbacked Spurs77c6,100$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4031154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Lakers28c6,100$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7089758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Spurs72c6,100$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.9710035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.