TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fcd…355abacked Under50c12,730$6,365 inLost-$6,364.87536%27 W · 48 L-9.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over50c9,210$4,605 inWon+$4,60517454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over50c2,895$1,447 inWon+$1,447.41,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Under53c1,218$646 inLost-$645.5536359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over47c948$446 inWon+$502.4495651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Under55c500$275 inLost-$2754050%20 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over50c419.6$210 inWon+$209.83,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over47c267.9$126 inWon+$141.9971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c100$50 inWon+$5037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0d4d…f103backed Under54c94.57$51 inLost-$51.071526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Over50c90.89$45 inWon+$45.469349.5%46 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…f674backed Under50c40.2$20 inLost-$20.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Under60c30.8$18 inLost-$18.4817750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc766…c4d9backed Under51c29.14$15 inLost-$151546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9140…17e0backed Over46c24.58$11 inWon+$13.271643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over51c24.32$13 inWon+$11.8157657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8609…4897backed Over46c24.06$11 inWon+$12.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c2…1618backed Over46c23.38$11 inWon+$12.632263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb11d…3706backed Over46c22.87$11 inWon+$12.351457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under49c21.35$10 inLost-$10.4659141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.