NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d858f1a2f8188071e87b7c7b181aecc33e56e9446238df22d16c004fd1cb8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Under | 56c | 32,063$18,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,000 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 29,226$13,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,774.2 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 54c | 27,170$14,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,550.11 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 47c | 16,576$7,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,826.54 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 12,077$5,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,756.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Under | 52c | 9,985$5,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,192.2 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 4,464$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.18 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Over | 44c | 2,850$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 2,012$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,010$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 1,294$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…0b63backed Under | 58c | 700$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed Under | 53c | 499.25$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 350.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 41c | 323.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 210 | 45.2%95 W · 115 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 261.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked Over | 47c | 164.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…4b6cbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 47c | 41.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 49c | 40.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 268 | 24.6%66 W · 202 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Under | 57c | 32.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 67c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Over | 44c | 29.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…0d3bbacked Under | 58c | 29.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 57c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Under | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Harrison Barnes: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jake LaRavia: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.