NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc164d4a4a3c2ce90585be62f1549e64330152121a764f87279a3d2a40fd1ac0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 74c | 6,289$4,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.33 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Lakers | 26c | 4,930$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lakers | 26c | 2,430$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.51 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 74c | 1,935$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.74 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Lakers | 7c | 1,249$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Lakers | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Spurs | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Lakers | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Lakers | 20c | 330.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Spurs | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Lakers | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Lakers | 21c | 252.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Spurs | 74c | 243.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Lakers | 25c | 200.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Spurs | 79c | 165.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…83e0backed Lakers | 24c | 158.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Lakers | 29c | 52.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Spurs | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Spurs | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…16c8backed Spurs | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…57c6backed Spurs | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…7107backed Spurs | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…2ed0backed Spurs | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…a9fcbacked Spurs | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spurs | 71c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…c2f9backed Spurs | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spurs | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…abd6backed Spurs | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…4833backed Spurs | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Spurs | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Spurs | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…1282backed Spurs | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…e4d5backed Spurs | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…098ebacked Spurs | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Spurs | 75c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…3c6fbacked Spurs | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f99…0a7cbacked Spurs | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…d484backed Spurs | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…cfe1backed Spurs | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Spurs | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…6a59backed Spurs | 79c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Spurs | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Spurs | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Spurs | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…ad1ebacked Spurs | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…ceadbacked Spurs | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…3724backed Spurs | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…d26ebacked Spurs | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Harrison Barnes: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jake LaRavia: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.