TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x622a…2b59backed 1win1c6,666$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.88210%0 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Aurora61c2,026$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.9315047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ce…86a8backed 1win18c1,217$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Aurora52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4804456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+52.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win41c960.54$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.851,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8e…af16backed 1win26c840.24$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed 1win60c662.28$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.757451.4%38 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked 1win34c642.88$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked 1win25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Aurora76c561.52$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.297149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora41c548.98$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.679750.5%49 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win24c535.39$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.22,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df4…bb2fbacked 1win5c517.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.731442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c19…859cbacked Aurora68c513.43$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.182152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed 1win25c479.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed 1win16c416.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6749133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955f…a811backed 1win17c399.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97a…5855backed 1win26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed 1win54c372.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006046.7%28 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Aurora70c365.07$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1212965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora60c363.27$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9443647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora67c358.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.171,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked 1win34c357.56$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2111052.7%58 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed 1win26c310.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010456.7%59 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora62c310.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.11,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed 1win55c307.89$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Aurora66c302.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.367851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked 1win16c278$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.534736.2%17 W · 30 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora61c247.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.418053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1win59c233.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.152,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Aurora65c230.52$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8411348.7%55 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora44c213.21$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked 1win50c201.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10091356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed 1win14c199.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed 1win15c186.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816437.2%61 W · 103 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed 1win15c166$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e7…ab94backed 1win65c153.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd227…0e69backed Aurora77c148.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Aurora66c147.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.984163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0db6…e1babacked 1win20c143.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc770…a8e9backed 1win39c124.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked 1win16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed 1win23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed 1win25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514039.3%55 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc13…83b8backed 1win25c95.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.031040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed 1win60c94.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.569756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked 1win16c92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8127…c407backed 1win16c90.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed 1win15c85.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7737745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73a…b528backed Aurora78c85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora80c82.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8234063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked 1win57c82.64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4713557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Aurora78c81.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9654753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a5…2caebacked 1win33c76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.172737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Aurora71c70.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.714967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed 1win51c68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4214453.5%77 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Aurora80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed 1win55c61.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa279…fd20backed 1win45c51.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Aurora79c50.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7746664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Aurora79c50.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4437456.4%211 W · 163 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8796…8950backed 1win22c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f42…c72fbacked Aurora60c49.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc79f…d270backed Aurora57c48.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.785354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3795841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcbd…191dbacked Aurora32c40.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368a…ea59backed Aurora39c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win29c39.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.216169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…0abbbacked 1win31c39.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.022536%9 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-37.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd684…3533backed 1win54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82da…ed72backed Aurora77c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe45…f9a7backed Aurora78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+142.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed 1win63c31.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9721062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41eb…a8ebbacked Aurora77c26.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…fc19backed Aurora78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8c…307abacked Aurora79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf2…a4acbacked Aurora79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1409…9a8fbacked Aurora80c24.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa005…6646backed Aurora70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+107.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x815b…050cbacked Aurora63c20.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c7…24c2backed Aurora76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.813061.5%80 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe290…7fb0backed Aurora51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick58cpaid+43.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.