Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12fb23a897e2e4b6d29b4968bab04448fb59cf19c93a0af7e6fc562bd5cbc694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 38c | 2,286$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 78c | 2,186$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.37 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win | 40c | 1,807$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.43 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed 1win | 44c | 752.53$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 54c | 745.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.47 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed 1win | 48c | 622.5$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 64c | 446.72$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora | 62c | 427.38$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.78 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed 1win | 4c | 417.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…4d2cbacked 1win | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 53c | 296.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 34c | 268.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed 1win | 41c | 244.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 22c | 227$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1win | 54c | 194.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…00a5backed 1win | 32c | 183.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked 1win | 47c | 175.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 45c | 170.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed 1win | 38c | 152.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 56c | 133.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed 1win | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 1win | 33c | 89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked 1win | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…a8e9backed 1win | 52c | 54.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win | 26c | 45.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked 1win | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…af48backed Aurora | 80c | 33.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.