Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10782e8cd42a54bac2febc92423db674300444fc9d60d0cf2680cbdb8af71f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Aurora | 76c | 1,408$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.08 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win | 24c | 1,404$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.14 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 74c | 1,241$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.53 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 35c | 897.15$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.82 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 71c | 823.95$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.47 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…f1a8backed Aurora | 8c | 600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 1win | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked 1win | 35c | 196.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 27c | 176.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Aurora | 51c | 144.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed 1win | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 44c | 94.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed 1win | 79c | 71.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Aurora | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Aurora | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1win | 48c | 34.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…9859backed Aurora | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.