TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Thunder, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,560,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,595,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,560,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 942 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Heat21c115,600$24,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,067.9551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Heat21c105,990$22,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,731.816752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Heat22c100,913$22,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,661.0625546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder78c82,664$64,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,478.061,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder79c79,195$62,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,708.181,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Heat21c49,999$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,499.4754539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat21c40,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,599.7951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat31c39,268$12,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,213.361,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Thunder78c30,385$23,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,70026949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder78c30,000$23,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,40066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder78c27,727$21,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,494.22,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder78c25,566$20,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,008.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat21c25,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,749.871,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Thunder77c23,760$18,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,333.1627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat33c23,122$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,396.9483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Thunder75c22,883$17,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,134.156540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder80c22,399$17,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,919.131,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat22c22,169$4,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,317.441,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b31…11a8backed Heat22c19,750$4,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,4651442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Heat23c19,648$4,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,113.9847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder64c16,442$10,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,526.372,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Heat19c16,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,959.9437539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder79c15,406$12,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,173.231,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Thunder77c14,874$11,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,438.4523747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat24c14,839$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,338.9376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder69c14,834$10,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,248.23,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Heat27c14,547$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,546.5721944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Heat20c12,990$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,392757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed Thunder73c12,513$9,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,119.382864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcddd…166cbacked Thunder79c11,164$8,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.766953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Heat23c11,110$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,591.7436741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Heat21c11,000$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,729.9918045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Heat24c10,222$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,725.8346940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat22c10,150$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9171,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Thunder79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,90019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Heat21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,90027424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Heat21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,90077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Heat21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.9717250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Thunder78c9,938$7,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,75271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder71c9,819$7,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,004.084,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Thunder78c9,500$7,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,38518151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Thunder1c9,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9523630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat22c9,091$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,090.9119136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Thunder77c8,757$6,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,75230157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Thunder79c8,000$6,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,319.9931445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder78c7,978$6,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.351,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Heat25c7,946$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.7835438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder74c7,711$5,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,694.745,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Thunder76c7,650$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.2227758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f10…76b3backed Thunder75c7,432$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6001855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder80c7,227$5,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,77856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Heat24c7,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,32014055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat19c6,559$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,312.7587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Heat25c6,441$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,847.4750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Heat21c6,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7402653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Heat18c5,663$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,647.4524138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder73c5,614$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.463,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder76c5,590$4,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,248.42,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Thunder79c5,371$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.2521440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x903c…22c7backed Thunder79c5,366$4,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,239.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b1…171abacked Thunder79c5,364$4,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,237.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+192.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat33c5,166$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,484.613,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat53c5,072$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.342,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Thunder79c5,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat28c4,975$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder78c4,822$3,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,768.121,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Thunder80c4,688$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Thunder79c4,676$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.436950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Thunder78c4,644$3,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.2124752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb101…5024backed Thunder65c4,524$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9411421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-49.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat25c4,385$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.071,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Thunder79c4,276$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3783050%15 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Heat68c4,272$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.5114254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7f…2658backed Heat33c4,257$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.552157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Heat21c4,225$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.335337.7%20 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Heat28c4,059$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,917.81,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Thunder79c4,000$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,16028742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Heat22c4,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,139.9561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Heat18c3,890$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1789443.6%41 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Heat24c3,869$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.9421143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Heat17c3,663$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.6748343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Heat23c3,617$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.899851%50 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Thunder79c3,576$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8255971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Thunder17c3,567$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5835326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Thunder79c3,530$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.528649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Heat20c3,419$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.3633735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Heat24c3,191$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.6933428.1%94 W · 240 L-20.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Heat22c3,182$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.8246632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Heat32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1257062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e54…a908backed Heat20c3,113$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+235.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Heat21c3,045$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.555152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Heat20c3,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Heat24c2,856$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.7914533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Thunder71c2,840$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.825621.4%12 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Heat33c2,801$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.912,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Thunder78c2,685$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0946860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Thunder78c2,500$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.9686641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Heat29c2,487$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.0839744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e7…c30dbacked Heat21c2,450$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.631040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Heat21c2,436$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.7340041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.