TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Thunder, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$595,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$600,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder52c420,926$218,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218,709.3187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat48c324,121$155,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,783.981,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Thunder51c48,076$24,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,649.0336359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Thunder52c31,358$16,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,306.2717250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Heat48c28,000$13,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,56048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat48c18,150$8,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,472.032,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Heat48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80024045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Heat47c12,656$5,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,707.7926253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder50c9,000$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Heat48c8,850$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60239842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Heat51c8,330$4,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.6442648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1602,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Heat48c7,823$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,067.9233447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder54c7,594$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.273,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat49c7,254$3,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.533,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat48c6,209$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,227.494,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x370f…c4e4backed Thunder51c5,244$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.31250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder51c4,493$2,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,291.4358449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…7a59backed Heat51c4,424$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Heat49c4,286$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.7138750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Heat48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.6744352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Heat48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.6748546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Heat49c4,061$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.2229347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Heat50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Heat48c3,710$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.4212454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder51c3,350$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.199,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Heat48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat49c2,493$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.142,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder49c2,253$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10465750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat48c2,172$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.32,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Heat48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Heat49c1,800$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9188647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Thunder58c1,727$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat48c1,700$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.592,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Heat51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.639952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Heat48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7809557.9%55 W · 40 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat48c1,254$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.082,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Thunder53c1,222$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.6611048.2%53 W · 57 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b8d…854cbacked Heat52c1,120$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.243354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Heat48c1,010$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.2518446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat48c814.16$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.361,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder48c810.64$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Heat49c800$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40952844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Heat47c799.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.222138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Heat49c731.8$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Thunder51c673.94$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.718961.8%55 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Heat49c620$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.251651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Heat48c560$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.219147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Heat72c557.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2712855.5%71 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Thunder49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Heat51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Thunder52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Thunder53c356.6$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18926545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Heat49c356.21$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1316658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder45c329.66$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.354,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Heat48c316.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7243544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d35…e83ebacked Heat48c287.88$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.76643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb364…f1e3backed Heat48c274.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.877060%42 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Heat48c252.25$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1721546.5%100 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Heat49c244.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.966046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Thunder50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209942.4%42 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Heat52c230.59$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5915959.1%94 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Thunder53c226.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12053149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Heat55c213.45$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.31,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Thunder48c212.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028452.4%44 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b38…ba47backed Heat48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.331540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.335,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab8…b5a6backed Heat48c206.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2510143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f63…a78dbacked Heat48c206.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.252356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+54.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Heat39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12210744.9%48 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Heat48c196$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9210454.8%57 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Thunder63c183.52$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6232952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder55c178.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.361,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e2…3000backed Thunder62c177.63$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.134744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Thunder49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.537750.4%190 W · 187 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Heat71c140.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.479458.5%55 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Heat46c136.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2662844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Heat48c135.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4225347%119 W · 134 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4b…1ff9backed Thunder51c120.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6316347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Heat51c117.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9217349.1%85 W · 88 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Heat52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3872250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Heat48c104.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3511145%50 W · 61 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Heat48c100.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7768940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Heat48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527150.7%36 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Heat51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…5685backed Heat51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.045836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Heat42c97.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0888845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…94febacked Heat48c96.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.014247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Thunder53c90.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4838347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Heat48c84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6821357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Heat45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Heat49c78.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2212062.5%75 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Heat48c75.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1427943%120 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Thunder59c74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6652052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder50c70.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.292,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Heat48c68.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5635844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf415…01a4backed Heat75c66.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.