NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc61f8cfc4908580ba670950ef30dcb50145a3bee21cde974669aa5bd812759b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 1,714$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,531$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,263$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.93 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 11c | 1,198$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b31…11a8backed Under | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 31c | 979.5$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.14 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 906.82$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.55 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 885.77$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 48c | 747$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.44 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 562.27$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Under | 50c | 466$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 52c | 382.7$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 54c | 373.91$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 55c | 363.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 46c | 217.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 203.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 48c | 184.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 68.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Heat won
- Thunder vs. HeatHeat won
- Thunder vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.