NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb8909dea1def417a3af558cde6901a11fff8c28e6e5350c2ff0ed8958fc3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 24,963$12,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,874.3 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 52c | 14,302$7,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,866.06 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 12,220$5,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,865.43 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 8,539$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 6,600$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 54c | 6,481$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,981.26 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 5,826$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 51c | 4,493$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.57 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 52c | 4,236$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.55 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.55 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 55c | 3,989$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.52 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 3,756$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.32 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 3,750$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.87 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 3,359$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.32 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 3,021$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,089$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.82 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 49c | 2,034$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.53 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 1,848$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.48 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,461$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.07 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 53c | 1,135$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.06 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 1,118$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.02 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Under | 48c | 979.17$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 936.71$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 882$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.64 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 50c | 800$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Under | 51c | 735$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Over | 52c | 661.85$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.14 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 55c | 605.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.59 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 491.23$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Under | 38c | 368.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 53c | 331.13$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Under | 45c | 212.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 49c | 188$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 62c | 127.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…08c6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…2bb4backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 48c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 48c | 90.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 70.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Under | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 57.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 55.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…2633backed Over | 53c | 51.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…8219backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…53d6backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 53c | 46.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…95b7backed Under | 53c | 41.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 42c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 48c | 30.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 58c | 28.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Over | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 27.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 51c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 50c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…332abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Heat won
- Thunder vs. HeatHeat won
- Thunder vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.