NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc895448c5741a0748f9af093cbf284f5b4a2201d69038147e2cdf8ef05b738ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Thunder, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 45c | 9,743$4,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.7 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder | 56c | 8,120$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.25 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 53c | 6,593$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.94 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 57c | 5,400$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.99 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 43c | 5,178$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed Heat | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 58c | 3,651$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.87 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 44c | 2,194$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.35 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Heat | 56c | 2,147$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.32 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 45c | 1,676$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 49c | 1,520$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 54c | 1,512$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.35 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Heat | 43c | 1,162$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.47 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Heat | 40c | 939.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.39 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 57c | 926$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Heat | 43c | 757.35$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.69 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 51c | 730.98$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 43c | 699.98$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4426backed Thunder | 49c | 612.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Heat | 47c | 595.11$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Heat | 43c | 540.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.98 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Thunder | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…c068backed Thunder | 55c | 499.98$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.99 | 145 | 37.9%55 W · 90 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Thunder | 61c | 415$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.15 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Thunder | 58c | 405$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 57c | 395$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 47c | 393.63$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…86dabacked Thunder | 55c | 364.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Thunder | 58c | 344.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Heat | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed Thunder | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Thunder | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed Thunder | 56c | 161.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Heat | 39c | 146$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Heat | 44c | 144.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Thunder | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Heat | 47c | 125.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Heat | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder | 58c | 114$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Thunder | 51c | 110.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Thunder | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Heat | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 57c | 91.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 58c | 80.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 43c | 76.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Heat | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Heat | 41c | 69.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Heat | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 55c | 56.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Heat | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Thunder | 41c | 53.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Thunder | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Thunder | 53c | 48.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…4313backed Heat | 45c | 45.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Thunder | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 44c | 41.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…61dabacked Heat | 44c | 41.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Heat | 46c | 40.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Thunder | 56c | 40.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…8219backed Thunder | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heat | 59c | 36.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…0c93backed Heat | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Thunder | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Heat | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 58c | 22.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…8410backed Heat | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Heat won
- Thunder vs. HeatHeat won
- Thunder vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.