NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7ab10990c95c2dbe6e17f1660f897f97f0d1522c4dd7f48c56894c2b144e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 48c | 114,668$55,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,040.49 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 52c | 68,760$35,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,004.67 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 52c | 38,462$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,461.54 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 10,398$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…d82ebacked Under | 50c | 2,820$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 2,295$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.55 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 1,930$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 1,818$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 1,135$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,133$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 53c | 953.73$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.25 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 5c | 889.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Over | 52c | 332.36$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 299.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 230.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…2589backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 52c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 84.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 53c | 61.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 52.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…34d8backed Under | 46c | 50.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 54c | 46.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…957abacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 51c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Heat won
- Thunder vs. HeatHeat won
- Thunder vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.