NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11d465f79a54c6718cd00a599fe6c12266c9eef1dc74a70127a37576a5e4d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Thunder, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat | 48c | 40,000$19,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,699.97 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder | 50c | 32,446$16,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,371.21 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Thunder | 55c | 26,785$14,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,648.82 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 54c | 25,909$13,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,990.65 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Heat | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 44c | 19,163$8,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,651.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 45c | 12,164$5,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,690.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 51c | 9,500$4,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,845 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 45c | 8,669$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 58c | 6,466$3,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…147cbacked Heat | 51c | 5,400$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 52c | 5,276$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Heat | 50c | 5,000$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.97 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Thunder | 51c | 4,589$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.51 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed Heat | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Thunder | 58c | 3,575$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.99 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…6020backed Thunder | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Thunder | 54c | 2,843$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.47 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Thunder | 49c | 2,433$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Heat | 48c | 2,250$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 46c | 2,200$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 41c | 2,195$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.05 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 45c | 2,159$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.82 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Thunder | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Thunder | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 51c | 2,021$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.88 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Thunder | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Thunder | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Heat | 45c | 1,315$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 48c | 1,125$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.36 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Thunder | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat | 46c | 999.98$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 977$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 46c | 888.4$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Heat | 43c | 869.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.2 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder | 52c | 862.36$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.43 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat | 45c | 778$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed Thunder | 51c | 646.72$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…a405backed Thunder | 53c | 550$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Heat | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Thunder | 51c | 370.39$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Thunder | 51c | 351.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Heat | 48c | 310.91$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 47c | 297.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.42 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Thunder | 49c | 263$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 52c | 257.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Heat | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Thunder | 52c | 248.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Heat | 50c | 208.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Heat | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Thunder | 57c | 134.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Thunder | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Heat | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…8473backed Heat | 47c | 99.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Thunder | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder | 51c | 84.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Thunder | 55c | 83.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 47c | 82.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Heat | 46c | 81.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 53c | 79.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Thunder | 52c | 78.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 58c | 66.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Thunder | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Heat | 47c | 54.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Heat | 47c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Heat | 50c | 50.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…4313backed Heat | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…957abacked Thunder | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Thunder | 52c | 39.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Thunder | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954a…1ed9backed Thunder | 52c | 38.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Thunder | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Thunder | 52c | 37.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…7412backed Heat | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Thunder | 53c | 34.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Thunder | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Heat | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Thunder | 55c | 23.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Heat | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Heat won
- Thunder vs. HeatHeat won
- Thunder vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.