TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$692,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$637,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 512 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes19c114,840$21,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,433.9425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes28c50,025$14,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,2071315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes8c19,990$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.028237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes27c15,518$4,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,154.918456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe5fa…ff6bbacked Yes1c13,293$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes13c12,400$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.7413334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked No68c11,971$8,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a7c…5fe2backed Yes1c11,147$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d6…b6e8backed Yes9c10,693$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6544…1711backed Yes2c7,741$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes39c7,228$2,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.6757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa21c…b303backed Yes35c7,053$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,47910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes1c6,905$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.053540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes26c5,173$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.619123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c5,110$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.626622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed No74c5,052$3,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.521266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1686…3cd3backed No79c4,786$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c4,704$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.6318216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked No72c4,620$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.083336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c19…accebacked No69c4,322$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No54c4,272$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.210122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbedf…b69abacked No69c4,164$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.73650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+152.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked No69c4,027$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.558932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9201526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes34c3,816$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.352030%6 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes33c3,706$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.891421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes30c3,191$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.5615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed No74c3,161$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.59977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+367.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes10c3,106$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.387828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e6…8e52backed Yes3c3,085$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes26c3,071$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.3614834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No78c3,061$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.7343243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes29c2,957$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.518035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No74c2,907$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.941855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b5…f7f0backed No72c2,790$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf784…7999backed Yes38c2,784$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c2,617$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8916612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes21c2,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5252138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes27c2,465$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.4137117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No66c2,300$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes11c2,290$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6810331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes31c2,243$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.048640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes2c2,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522540%10 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes36c1,991$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.184139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes1c1,950$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0280…b1a0backed Yes26c1,945$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51270%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b6…612ebacked No78c1,924$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+171.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes29c1,817$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.376142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,750$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.52344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e5…32aabacked No66c1,747$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e09…d784backed No69c1,670$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes1c1,608$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-76.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes23c1,607$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.556756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x88b1…83d7backed Yes10c1,574$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes15c1,546$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes19c1,545$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9130233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb23e…6577backed No77c1,517$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd49d…3c44backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes2c1,491$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c1,467$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c1,462$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.122117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…a915backed Yes34c1,457$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes3c1,400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes21c1,321$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.063435.3%12 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9329…9d3ebacked No72c1,317$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes35c1,277$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.565341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes28c1,253$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3612129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c1,244$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.34229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes28c1,172$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.582759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bfa…09edbacked Yes3c1,167$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b08…8f15backed Yes8c1,151$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No64c1,131$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.222540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…55a0backed No63c1,106$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+66.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed No79c1,096$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.39683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ae…f407backed Yes28c1,085$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ad…2318backed Yes26c1,085$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes9c1,056$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.936311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No74c1,050$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.993724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5780…a6dbbacked Yes10c1,030$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes8c1,023$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.47772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No71c1,014$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3918246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No64c1,013$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.4136742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes13c1,012$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.025536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160f…7c89backed No73c1,010$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc289…7878backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31013444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed7…5f67backed Yes6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+71.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed No76c951.59$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.014136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes26c949.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed53…b946backed Yes22c947.63$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…5cd5backed Yes11c946.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3b…7654backed Yes11c913.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f44…4bd8backed Yes28c885.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed No57c840$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…c26bbacked Yes11c835.1$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.