World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53604fa969a2a9c98b1c35b658ae68fb4591bdb191c041c709236061ee1d16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 13c | 30,793$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.69 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked No | 79c | 18,148$14,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400.79 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…00a7backed No | 23c | 13,095$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 47c | 8,940$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.08 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 15c | 8,430$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,204.59 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed Yes | 51c | 7,590$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…f38cbacked Yes | 70c | 5,736$3,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.07 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked No | 45c | 5,567$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.46 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 10c | 5,541$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…024ebacked Yes | 53c | 4,551$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 17c | 4,375$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.05 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 42c | 4,239$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.18 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 14c | 4,094$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.73 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 72c | 4,077$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.02 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…ce54backed Yes | 22c | 3,981$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 47c | 3,865$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.44 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…2fa7backed Yes | 77c | 3,735$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 3,712$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.49 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…6d9cbacked Yes | 77c | 3,271$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 63c | 3,246$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.58 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…b41fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,160$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…e1d4backed Yes | 77c | 2,929$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…b946backed Yes | 44c | 2,577$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 34c | 2,526$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.25 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 9c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 8c | 1,962$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…030abacked No | 32c | 1,600$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 14c | 1,500$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 1,484$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.31 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…42d7backed Yes | 22c | 1,310$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 44c | 1,125$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 21c | 1,097$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.69 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 65c | 1,095$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…ba17backed Yes | 19c | 1,064$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 13c | 1,006$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.04 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e6…8e52backed Yes | 56c | 981.72$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 34c | 976$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.27 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 947.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 848.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 12c | 836.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…af34backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 20c | 818.43$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Yes | 72c | 791.06$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 762.03$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.15 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 728$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.38 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 14c | 710.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed No | 9c | 700$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 65c | 699.98$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 7c | 657.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…b7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 645.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 27c | 621.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b047backed Yes | 16c | 617.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…b2adbacked Yes | 63c | 612.41$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 49c | 599.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 18c | 588.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…dbc6backed Yes | 40c | 572.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 20c | 542.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…8a93backed Yes | 62c | 480.65$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d5…e7bebacked Yes | 13c | 477.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,571.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 54c | 472.17$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 39c | 470.5$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.87 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…adc0backed No | 11c | 447.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 22c | 423.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…bb03backed Yes | 28c | 421.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 59c | 400.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8c…30bbbacked No | 63c | 399.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…f7dfbacked No | 4c | 397.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…bc89backed Yes | 49c | 391.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed No | 10c | 384.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 376.87$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…1b04backed No | 3c | 361.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 353.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.41 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…39c5backed Yes | 60c | 350$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 24c | 349.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 59c | 336.86$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Yes | 24c | 333.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…8124backed Yes | 29c | 330$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…3ad4backed Yes | 23c | 323.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…e536backed Yes | 79c | 318.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…3577backed No | 49c | 308$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed No | 75c | 305.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…c70abacked No | 11c | 302.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…74c1backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e58…25f7backed Yes | 49c | 278.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa21…927cbacked Yes | 49c | 261.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 261.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…09d1backed Yes | 69c | 256.49$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…57f6backed Yes | 48c | 249.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606a…46d0backed Yes | 72c | 249.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Catarina Martins qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Humberto Correia qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuel João Vieira qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.