TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes14c17,087$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.9243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31ec…ab04backed Yes6c10,749$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674205%1 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes9c8,751$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.3810122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes9c6,644$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.1530233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes3c3,989$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.664634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes13c3,986$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.0631534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes6c2,708$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.039123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c2,080$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.662344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c2,052$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.12543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4216…24d6backed Yes12c1,945$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…030abacked Yes13c1,895$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,722$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.251,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes6c1,406$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.51772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e6…11bcbacked Yes3c1,395$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e3…bc83backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked Yes4c1,240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c1,190$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.181152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x395d…21ebbacked No75c1,165$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,121$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.532117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367f…da11backed Yes2c1,071$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bda…52e7backed Yes5c1,061$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2c…e158backed Yes10c1,050$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e47…a510backed Yes5c1,004$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes11c999.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.919742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c857$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7618216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc8…d12ebacked Yes7c812.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes4c806.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-85.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1489…0272backed Yes14c787.56$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd794…b2ffbacked Yes3c757.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f68…7d84backed Yes3c707.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c682.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b72…06d9backed Yes2c612.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c606.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.66458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes5c600$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c591.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.271425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xbedf…b69abacked No71c566.16$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+152.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes2c537.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes2c534.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.293724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…43d2backed Yes5c503.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed7…5f67backed No62c499.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+71.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c490.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.056311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes15c449.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.26142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9b…def7backed Yes23c440.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26f…376fbacked Yes4c421.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes24c408.23$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0623921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc8…fe5abacked Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes6c363.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.783710.8%4 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3221…544cbacked No66c347.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes14c309.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.728430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0579…5f52backed No61c304.72$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes10c299.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff5…c52dbacked Yes8c292.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c286.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5356314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb92…c583backed Yes7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4013…4d70backed Yes18c226.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf087…40f5backed Yes25c216.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.66650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+219%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes10c216$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.683636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafa7…dfacbacked No72c214.13$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.662147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3e…5fbabacked Yes19c211.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c211$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b9…71f8backed Yes5c208.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Yes38c206.55$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4970%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264050%20 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+74.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes26c191.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No74c186.03$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.377954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes21c184.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85141.2%21 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c175.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf28…7c87backed Yes24c171.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+169.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4342…b657backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703f…8063backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…c14abacked Yes8c157.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c150.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e5…9749backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes12c139.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.274327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc558…35a7backed Yes12c125.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…1768backed Yes10c121.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e13…3ad4backed Yes17c116.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+166.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…dcebbacked Yes22c111.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c109.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5120328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes45c104$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.641010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes24c100.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9483…6915backed Yes12c94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01f3…0496backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes45c89.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.111010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid+52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc27d…a3febacked Yes15c87.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…8735backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes53c64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfb…28fdbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0371…ce75backed No55c49.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+208.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd28f…23cabacked No80c39.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe621…576abacked No59c39.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.252133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…2ac8backed No68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c65…6b11backed Yes68c29.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf922…c778backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No72c24.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8811045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7311…3d81backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No72c18.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1299017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.