World Politics · resolved market
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0a5c4961a12829b3ff28e74b4bd35c0544088174674ddc77f427343d7e5a551
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 14c | 17,087$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.92 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 6c | 10,749$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 9c | 8,751$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.38 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 9c | 6,644$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.15 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,989$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,986$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.06 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,708$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 2,080$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 2,052$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…24d6backed Yes | 12c | 1,945$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…030abacked Yes | 13c | 1,895$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,722$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,406$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…11bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,395$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…bc83backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked Yes | 4c | 1,240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,190$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…21ebbacked No | 75c | 1,165$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,121$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…da11backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…e158backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 857$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked Yes | 7c | 812.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes | 4c | 806.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…0272backed Yes | 14c | 787.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b2ffbacked Yes | 3c | 757.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…7d84backed Yes | 3c | 707.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 682.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…06d9backed Yes | 2c | 612.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 606.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 591.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…b69abacked No | 71c | 566.16$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 2c | 537.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 534.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…43d2backed Yes | 5c | 503.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed7…5f67backed No | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 490.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 15c | 449.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…def7backed Yes | 23c | 440.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…376fbacked Yes | 4c | 421.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 24c | 408.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…fe5abacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 363.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…544cbacked No | 66c | 347.92$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 14c | 309.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…5f52backed No | 61c | 304.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes | 10c | 299.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff5…c52dbacked Yes | 8c | 292.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 286.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…c583backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 18c | 226.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed Yes | 25c | 216.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +219%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 10c | 216$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked No | 72c | 214.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3e…5fbabacked Yes | 19c | 211.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 9c | 211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b9…71f8backed Yes | 5c | 208.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Yes | 38c | 206.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…7884backed Yes | 26c | 191.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 186.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 21c | 184.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 175.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…7c87backed Yes | 24c | 171.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4342…b657backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…8063backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…c14abacked Yes | 8c | 157.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 150.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 12c | 139.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…35a7backed Yes | 12c | 125.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…1768backed Yes | 10c | 121.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…3ad4backed Yes | 17c | 116.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 22c | 111.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 109.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 24c | 100.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…6915backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…0496backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes | 45c | 89.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3febacked Yes | 15c | 87.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…8735backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…28fdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…ce75backed No | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…23cabacked No | 80c | 39.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked No | 59c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…2ac8backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…c778backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…3d81backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Catarina Martins qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Humberto Correia qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuel João Vieira qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.