World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1f6b8c58e86aeeda05b9fdf46daa8a055cf858ef3dfb382779aa5244c7dce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $450,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $398,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed Yes | 66c | 56,868$37,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,703.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 38c | 23,334$8,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,360.64 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 38c | 14,000$5,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,680 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 12c | 13,964$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.1 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 46c | 10,785$5,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,770.31 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 35c | 9,003$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 15c | 8,541$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,298.93 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 7,216$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.1 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…b51bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,089$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 16c | 5,999$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.85 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 4,013$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 74c | 3,837$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 14c | 3,470$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.57 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 37c | 3,286$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…af03backed Yes | 24c | 3,266$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,247$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.85 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 38c | 3,156$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.09 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,877$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 3c | 2,760$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…def7backed Yes | 3c | 2,495$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,421$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked No | 54c | 2,267$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 1c | 1,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked No | 63c | 1,965$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 80c | 1,924$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 31c | 1,769$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.37 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…0331backed Yes | 12c | 1,763$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,746$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…b69abacked Yes | 10c | 1,600$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 26c | 1,556$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.84 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,548$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937c…ceffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,531$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,525$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…3af9backed Yes | 3c | 1,518$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 1,395$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.64 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 37c | 1,393$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.77 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 52c | 1,362$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.95 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 33c | 1,298$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.35 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,223$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…72acbacked Yes | 25c | 1,202$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…030abacked Yes | 24c | 1,200$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd9…78c1backed Yes | 25c | 1,194$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…1711backed Yes | 12c | 1,159$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6437…5a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,140$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,113$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,047$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…b721backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes | 10c | 1,038$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 78c | 1,031$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e2b0backed Yes | 6c | 934.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2a…6d73backed Yes | 13c | 857.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 804.36$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…dadabacked Yes | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…9c96backed No | 76c | 794.79$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…3aabbacked No | 52c | 783.99$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed No | 15c | 755.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.69 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…8063backed No | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…79edbacked Yes | 13c | 696.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e9…2a01backed Yes | 3c | 692.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked No | 55c | 690.05$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…6a32backed Yes | 16c | 673.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed No | 21c | 668.58$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 658.69$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…74c1backed Yes | 13c | 656.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…da11backed Yes | 3c | 577.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 64c | 569.55$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 3c | 560.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 556.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 77c | 539.8$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…0307backed Yes | 3c | 523.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b2ffbacked Yes | 4c | 519.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…9b58backed No | 79c | 503.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 497.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 484.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e3…6ce5backed Yes | 3c | 483.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 23c | 477.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.62 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…7c51backed Yes | 4c | 476.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 465.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.49 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 26c | 450$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…1782backed No | 62c | 441.63$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +157%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 440$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed No | 60c | 438.4$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…5f86backed Yes | 33c | 435$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 13c | 428.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…40a8backed No | 47c | 426.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 62c | 423$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…dbc6backed Yes | 55c | 419.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 416.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…3577backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Catarina Martins qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Humberto Correia qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuel João Vieira qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.