TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$519,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$506,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…31abbacked Yes76c65,244$49,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,443.345628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No23c63,674$14,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,657.0925337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a8…9aa1backed Yes79c43,999$34,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,107.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No20c34,584$6,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,889.841315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No21c19,770$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,072.2213334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes76c13,782$10,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.121266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f2…eecfbacked No30c12,837$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked No26c12,276$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.192030%6 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No26c12,199$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.7210037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No22c11,274$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.5614834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…9ff9backed No34c10,562$3,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No25c10,061$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.9510127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed No33c9,927$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,236.69825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No8c8,772$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.778237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No18c7,200$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.7211741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes71c6,744$4,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No25c6,442$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.5718036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No18c6,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.991526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No26c5,926$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.868456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed No24c5,807$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.611010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid+52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No25c5,653$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.319123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Yes69c5,176$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes75c5,174$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No33c4,918$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.837357.5%42 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes69c4,884$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.058932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked No9c4,845$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.073928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed Yes72c4,754$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No21c4,600$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.9824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed No27c4,568$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.65825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No21c4,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9451942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…eefabacked Yes80c4,318$3,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3e…3770backed No26c4,240$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.580%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed Yes80c3,750$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7503554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94aa…024ebacked Yes79c3,613$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…e15cbacked No31c3,555$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18d…f38cbacked Yes73c3,359$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.51283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e82…17c7backed Yes69c3,220$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.37650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4403…7c46backed No28c2,920$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes78c2,731$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.953336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3060…c709backed Yes79c2,713$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No20c2,323$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.2115230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc6d1…21c7backed No28c2,153$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.281723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+122.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No28c2,120$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.4618246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No14c2,083$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7916612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No27c2,002$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.4337117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked Yes73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed No28c1,977$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.124136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No26c1,926$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9819742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2f…acb6backed Yes68c1,800$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc2…5a6bbacked Yes68c1,800$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes74c1,787$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.142147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Yes80c1,783$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No37c1,733$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c1,560$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No18c1,500$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2647828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No29c1,427$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.479750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…6b12backed Yes80c1,361$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked No23c1,339$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.051421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No28c1,311$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.228035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfebc…9441backed Yes77c1,184$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…ae22backed Yes68c1,100$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes75c1,100$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.246040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No25c1,095$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.453636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes72c1,068$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.1430233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x969c…314cbacked No19c1,057$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+272.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee9…78d0backed Yes78c1,033$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes70c1,028$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.812540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No31c1,026$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.22147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes70c1,010$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.611145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No20c1,008$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7113444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26010122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No23c1,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+105.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab4…2191backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes74c1,000$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.12977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+367.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf608…6af0backed No22c954.55$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe33…2f77backed Yes68c900$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b80…1e0cbacked Yes68c900$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No38c876.63$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3376756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4044…8f69backed No25c814.5$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c800$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21654934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8934…ca30backed No30c799.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…399bbacked Yes72c797.02$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac19…4f9fbacked Yes69c793.89$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d01…9b25backed Yes70c770$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf661…c7cabacked No4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2f…b8efbacked Yes70c730.1$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-52.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…030abacked Yes70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed No28c710$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.041553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed No20c700$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5e…a6fbbacked No9c679.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No10c678.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5611435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed No30c675.98$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.999631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed Yes70c672.63$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…b445backed Yes68c651.35$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.42666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No25c642.78$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.757646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e6…8e52backed Yes78c642.38$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee8a…4fb2backed Yes73c637.66$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No20c634.77$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7623921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.