Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ac9d2a86cb02a5db4347478f025703c9f2c8a6fab61b35d2ddc21de67058a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 789.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 702.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 21c | 697.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked No | 73c | 680.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…c71abacked Yes | 2c | 595.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 22c | 586.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…de3dbacked Yes | 40c | 502.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…6f10backed No | 75c | 478.3$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…3d31backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 335.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 21c | 315$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 78c | 311.46$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 14c | 241.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 39c | 239.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…8064backed Yes | 28c | 207.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 17c | 202.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…61aabacked Yes | 13c | 199$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…b224backed Yes | 12c | 171.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 74c | 160.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked No | 79c | 160.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 65c | 154.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 80c | 144.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 72c | 139.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…8eeebacked Yes | 37c | 128.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 13c | 121.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 16c | 119.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed No | 71c | 112.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d0c7backed Yes | 28c | 110.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6315backed Yes | 47c | 104.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 16c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 17c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…72d0backed Yes | 27c | 89.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…b3c3backed No | 80c | 87.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 17c | 86.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 61c | 84.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 21c | 76.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 19c | 75.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 28c | 75.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 22c | 72.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 58c | 68.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…0c8ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 20c | 56.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…207cbacked No | 60c | 54.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed No | 58c | 53.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…b12cbacked No | 58c | 48.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…1634backed No | 71c | 45.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 68c | 41.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 63c | 38.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0eb…e702backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 46c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…d69ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…abe4backed No | 77c | 26.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 74c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…b528backed No | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.