Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3e640cf6f2bd6d1d2c55d9ba3288b2ab12b88600298a1d00f14be1bddfd663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 3c | 13,493$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 10,262$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.76 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 8,631$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.95 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…ba4dbacked No | 8c | 8,400$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…a3c8backed No | 9c | 8,200$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed No | 6c | 5,913$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.03 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…1bc8backed No | 1c | 5,693$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 0c | 4,668$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,050$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 31c | 3,832$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…7c61backed No | 0c | 3,252$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 2c | 2,584$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked No | 1c | 2,403$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed No | 3c | 1,876$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…6bc4backed No | 1c | 1,560$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 1c | 1,483$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 1,295$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…c024backed No | 3c | 1,130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 78c | 1,077$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 690.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 644.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 6c | 609.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 77c | 451.52$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 395.72$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 5c | 382$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 381.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 28c | 354.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.39 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 49c | 308.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…a63ebacked No | 57c | 254.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed Yes | 32c | 252.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 19c | 220$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 28c | 183$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 72c | 175.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 80c | 155.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 19c | 149.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 67c | 149.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed No | 77c | 140.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…1e58backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 62c | 133.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ef61backed No | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 20c | 127.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 12c | 113.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 27c | 109.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…706dbacked No | 79c | 105.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 104.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…5629backed No | 78c | 102.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…62c0backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 22c | 91.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 84.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…284fbacked No | 25c | 79.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 64c | 77.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 66c | 75.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…abe4backed No | 78c | 70.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…b243backed Yes | 78c | 70.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 42c | 64.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…6c8ebacked No | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…ada8backed Yes | 28c | 59.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…9998backed No | 76c | 58.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 59c | 57.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…87ddbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3914backed Yes | 27c | 49.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes | 27c | 47.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 45.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 61c | 42.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 37.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…25b8backed No | 71c | 30.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe623…a467backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…6c65backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafc…0a18backed No | 78c | 22.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…b686backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…59a4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 79cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4641…9ab8backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 64c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…a22dbacked No | 69c | 17.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…d949backed No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.