TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75a9…fb4dbacked No69c5,006$3,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x973b…01c0backed Yes31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…a94abacked Yes1c4,472$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes2c2,899$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.17368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a77…61bfbacked Yes10c2,316$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No69c2,251$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.184355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb180…8858backed Yes4c2,247$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,050$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.971,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0425…580fbacked Yes35c2,001$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,660$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes65c1,407$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.71752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d75…c6f1backed No63c1,249$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.17887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes3c1,227$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.874418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,199$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.992476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c1,185$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No48c1,003$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6613950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes4c917.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c912.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c893.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.944928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c842.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.372384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd2e…b704backed Yes43c835.94$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1770%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c799.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes35c795.95$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe144…030bbacked Yes3c779.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c749.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes9c721.15$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8911329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes31c700.44$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.722860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be9…550ebacked Yes2c665.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69a…a41cbacked Yes2c614.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d1…c685backed No60c600$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2391163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6208…ae34backed Yes19c532.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes26c503.34$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.446726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes46c501.76$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.564645.7%21 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c9…be1dbacked No51c490.45$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc49…db74backed No55c429.11$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.544047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No41c407.14$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.4411329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes40c404.06$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fd…dc50backed Yes4c382.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e34…f895backed Yes49c372.16$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.951030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x677a…32b0backed Yes49c355.86$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes13c312.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405813.8%8 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37d4…eb10backed No61c305.68$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.681963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa5…c141backed Yes36c303.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes44c295.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.593525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8c…bf43backed Yes21c287.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7ae…a8f4backed Yes39c255$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ddd…9640backed Yes31c254.18$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No80c254.01$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8316447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes34c251.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6731344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ad…34debacked No65c242.63$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes45c231.68$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2234440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes22c203.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.811315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c200.87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11815643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes42c199.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed No63c199.93$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.666756.7%38 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No34c199.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1417740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe2…1419backed No65c194.77$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbe…25bcbacked Yes64c156.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fac…63f8backed Yes36c148.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.062733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b4…7b60backed Yes68c147.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick65cpaid-64.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xfa32…21dabacked Yes28c146.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.862138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c144.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes29c140.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc226…497dbacked Yes44c138.27$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9c…badcbacked No42c137.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.121533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…8a5bbacked No76c132.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed Yes53c132$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8992…40dbbacked Yes16c130$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes24c125.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.859446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes59c125.1$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb718…ec22backed No57c122.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.05366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed No57c121.12$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.534141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes29c115.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.813140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c114.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4734432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f1e…1212backed No52c113.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.39875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed No47c111.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.217128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes38c106.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c104.76$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6721…d75bbacked No38c101.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.824141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No79c100.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.848248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee69…0c70backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f38…6720backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c93…6a5ebacked No59c96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.346123%14 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes60c95.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3315951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a1…7b8ebacked Yes54c95.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19b…a105backed No63c94.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.37771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa142…375abacked No74c94.33$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.86785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d54…66a1backed No77c90.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked No64c89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.15850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No71c88.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.612650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…fd2abacked No42c88.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.361747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4325…c0f5backed Yes50c86.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-73.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x682b…2164backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4778…398bbacked No76c79.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed No64c79.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5310657.5%61 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b8b…06ffbacked No68c75.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes27c74.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.