Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5ee18bf924e75a0038640dfb51db702a75a8d002dfbed7c7bdbe01520ebad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75a9…fb4dbacked No | 69c | 5,006$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…01c0backed Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…a94abacked Yes | 1c | 4,472$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,899$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…61bfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,316$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 69c | 2,251$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8858backed Yes | 4c | 2,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,050$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…580fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,001$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 65c | 1,407$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed No | 63c | 1,249$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,227$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 48c | 1,003$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.66 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 4c | 917.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 912.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 893.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 842.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2e…b704backed Yes | 43c | 835.94$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 35c | 795.95$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.91 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 3c | 779.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 749.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 9c | 721.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 31c | 700.44$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…550ebacked Yes | 2c | 665.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…a41cbacked Yes | 2c | 614.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 60c | 600$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6208…ae34backed Yes | 19c | 532.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 26c | 503.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 46c | 501.76$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…be1dbacked No | 51c | 490.45$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 55c | 429.11$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 41c | 407.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.44 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 40c | 404.06$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…dc50backed Yes | 4c | 382.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…f895backed Yes | 49c | 372.16$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x677a…32b0backed Yes | 49c | 355.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 13c | 312.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed No | 61c | 305.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…c141backed Yes | 36c | 303.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 44c | 295.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…bf43backed Yes | 21c | 287.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…a8f4backed Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed Yes | 31c | 254.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 80c | 254.01$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 34c | 251.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 65c | 242.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 45c | 231.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes | 22c | 203.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 200.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 63c | 199.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 34c | 199.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.14 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe2…1419backed No | 65c | 194.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…25bcbacked Yes | 64c | 156.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 36c | 148.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…7b60backed Yes | 68c | 147.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.43per pick | 65cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 28c | 146.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 144.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 29c | 140.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Yes | 44c | 138.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…badcbacked No | 42c | 137.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…8a5bbacked No | 76c | 132.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 53c | 132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 24c | 125.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 59c | 125.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb718…ec22backed No | 57c | 122.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 57c | 121.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 115.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 114.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 52c | 113.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 47c | 111.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes | 38c | 106.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 104.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked No | 38c | 101.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 79c | 100.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…0c70backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 95.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…7b8ebacked Yes | 54c | 95.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…a105backed No | 63c | 94.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…375abacked No | 74c | 94.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…66a1backed No | 77c | 90.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 64c | 89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed No | 71c | 88.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…fd2abacked No | 42c | 88.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…c0f5backed Yes | 50c | 86.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682b…2164backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…398bbacked No | 76c | 79.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 64c | 79.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…06ffbacked No | 68c | 75.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 27c | 74.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.