Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e29cfed8e32f7c4e36bd79adc172dac2ea9793d843cfe0a1370141b7c302683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 11,272$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 75c | 8,918$6,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.34 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 79c | 6,920$5,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.14 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 21c | 6,655$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.07 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 23c | 6,556$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.18 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,574$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 3c | 5,252$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 57c | 4,020$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…0257backed No | 56c | 3,770$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 3,660$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 11c | 3,069$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.1 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked No | 3c | 2,801$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 2,356$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 7c | 2,242$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.78 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed No | 24c | 2,121$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…aa2bbacked No | 26c | 1,977$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…6cc6backed Yes | 62c | 1,941$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…f79ebacked No | 23c | 1,889$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked No | 20c | 1,746$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.29 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…486abacked No | 14c | 1,720$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 3c | 1,485$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…d303backed No | 4c | 1,480$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…3b51backed No | 25c | 1,427$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 24c | 1,366$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,227$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…e768backed Yes | 77c | 1,149$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d0c7backed No | 27c | 1,127$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 80c | 1,054$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 12c | 975.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 49c | 929.43$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.03 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 13c | 890.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 8c | 809.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 26c | 807.88$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 799.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 19c | 790.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…404fbacked No | 10c | 781.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 31c | 761.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 40c | 703.41$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 699.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 7c | 699.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 72c | 699.85$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.21 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Yes | 68c | 699.02$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 24c | 694.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 16c | 682.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 676.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…22dcbacked Yes | 75c | 676.88$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 80c | 671.1$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…1429backed No | 11c | 659.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 20c | 632$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6022…390bbacked No | 32c | 626.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 620.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 76c | 603.54$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 602.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 18c | 586.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 579.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…3d31backed Yes | 64c | 578.88$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 29c | 555.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…dc0cbacked Yes | 76c | 553.76$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 25c | 500.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 22c | 465.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 63c | 431.43$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 407.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 32c | 400.14$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 78c | 399.17$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked No | 13c | 393.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 39c | 387$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed No | 54c | 380.64$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…b947backed No | 8c | 352.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 30c | 349.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 20c | 348.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 47c | 345.43$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 21c | 335.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…3dbdbacked No | 13c | 333.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 73c | 312.73$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…badcbacked No | 12c | 306.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 25c | 299.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…0d80backed No | 20c | 295.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 6c | 291.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 29c | 284.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed No | 18c | 283.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 13c | 282.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5813…b464backed No | 26c | 273.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 68c | 255.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…8ef9backed No | 39c | 254.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 61c | 245.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…dc15backed Yes | 68c | 244.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 14c | 243.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b7…6b85backed No | 57c | 238.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 14c | 228.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 21c | 215.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…62c0backed Yes | 65c | 214.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 19c | 211.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…207cbacked No | 44c | 210.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 208.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 204.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 43c | 201.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.