Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8ccaaa388e3f672024cace6ce7586d3a03dcb128285b1bdf928c9c627aeaa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 52c | 1,433$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.54 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,064$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.17 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 941.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 70c | 877.94$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.28 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 67c | 874.19$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 59c | 844$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.93 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 820.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 64c | 782.89$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.37 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 15c | 703.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…c28abacked Yes | 2c | 678.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 63c | 678.22$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…a63ebacked No | 78c | 667.05$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 599.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 11c | 551.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…78d0backed No | 40c | 471.67$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 448.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 3c | 411.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…6bc4backed Yes | 35c | 411$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 360.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 355.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed No | 56c | 347.44$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 343.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 301.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…6f10backed No | 67c | 300.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 40c | 274.52$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 45c | 274.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 251.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 28c | 248.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 213.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 196.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 195.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…6062backed Yes | 63c | 190.49$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked Yes | 64c | 189.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…3d31backed Yes | 54c | 186.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 58c | 184.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 50c | 182.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes | 57c | 176.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 27c | 174.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 74c | 173.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 25c | 172.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 42c | 170.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 38c | 164.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 53c | 153.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 72c | 139.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…a2c8backed No | 47c | 137.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 48c | 135.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…c134backed No | 75c | 132.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 129.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 16c | 124.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 75c | 121.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…c52bbacked No | 51c | 118.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 101.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584a…5a8bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 61c | 98.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 35c | 91.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed Yes | 70c | 86.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 31c | 86.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7b…2e17backed No | 47c | 84.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 32c | 83.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…691fbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 26c | 77.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 28c | 76.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Yes | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 70c | 71.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 37c | 68.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed No | 59c | 68.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 51c | 62.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked No | 66c | 60.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…a12cbacked No | 58c | 60.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…12ecbacked No | 53c | 56.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 49c | 53.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 26c | 53.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…03a2backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6315backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…f8f2backed No | 66c | 49.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0699…8122backed No | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…b376backed Yes | 42c | 47.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…5ed7backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…abe4backed No | 58c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…b224backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.