Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c4a432cb3769e5e1797e1686a51b61db9e267fcab91d0c42e512e580762bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 25c | 1,378$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 27c | 1,344$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 25c | 1,122$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 75c | 998$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 73c | 980$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.02 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 73c | 957$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 73c | 838$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 27c | 803$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 15c | 751.08$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 76c | 726$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 74c | 702$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 28c | 688$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 74c | 677.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 75c | 646$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 28c | 635$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 72c | 593$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 73c | 532$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 24c | 529$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 74c | 508$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 27c | 493$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 75c | 484$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 25c | 484$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 26c | 483.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 73c | 480$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 27c | 466$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 25c | 432$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 25c | 412$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 75c | 387.3$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 73c | 369$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 72c | 346$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 27c | 331$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 27c | 331$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 75c | 320$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 73c | 317$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 26c | 309$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 27c | 307$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 74c | 269$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 13c | 260.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 74c | 245$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 26c | 245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 26c | 240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 26c | 199$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 24c | 197$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 74c | 158$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 26c | 154$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 148.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…adeebacked No | 72c | 42.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…f469backed No | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…4677backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 77c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.