Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ce3dc01158cb0bfd4bd3a63eab414a9c28ea6d40d10b5fd176ba332949a843f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 57c | 2,094$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.43 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 47c | 1,294$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.71 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 6c | 1,257$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 12c | 1,182$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 707.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.16 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 16c | 702.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.83 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 13c | 673.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.88 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 665.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1913…b494backed Yes | 31c | 654.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 74c | 560.81$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.54 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 530.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 20c | 424.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 345.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.53 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 15c | 325$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.05 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 30c | 300.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.21 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 23c | 289.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 78c | 257.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 15c | 240$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 13c | 232.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 190.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 90.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 90.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 87.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 77.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 75.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed No | 21c | 67.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 18c | 61.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…a95ebacked No | 67c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 20.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.