Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab99192c204134baebf14b9e7b0f26d05649ce001a379172edd45730afdaec39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed Yes | 62c | 3,358$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.18 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 39c | 1,172$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.37 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 2cpaid | +2,900%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed No | 45c | 976.75$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 53c | 952.59$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.31 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…36dfbacked Yes | 59c | 890.45$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 819.55$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.25 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed No | 43c | 676.67$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 13c | 652.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…b4c6backed No | 5c | 558.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…39ebbacked Yes | 33c | 557$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…7ae6backed No | 69c | 554.82$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…2351backed No | 11c | 506.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 68c | 458.3$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 26c | 423.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 62c | 421.3$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…16a2backed Yes | 26c | 420$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 405.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 54c | 371.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…b560backed Yes | 45c | 361.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 42c | 327.17$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 65c | 323.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 48c | 309.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 67c | 299.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…e58abacked No | 47c | 299.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 52c | 288.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…af26backed No | 62c | 288.09$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…3803backed No | 35c | 285.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…cecebacked No | 67c | 281$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 55c | 279.47$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 36c | 276.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9098…8114backed No | 67c | 276$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a32…1110backed No | 74c | 260$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked No | 41c | 243.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 51c | 229.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 26c | 224.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4130backed No | 44c | 213.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 39c | 212.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…39babacked Yes | 47c | 205.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 75c | 197.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 53c | 191.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 33c | 191.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…7e73backed Yes | 57c | 187.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…7414backed Yes | 55c | 180.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8c…768bbacked No | 35c | 169.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Yes | 56c | 166.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a76…4fe9backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 78c | 158.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 153.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 60c | 144.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 49c | 139.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 44c | 135.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 41c | 135.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 34c | 132.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed Yes | 42c | 130.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…5a18backed No | 53c | 127.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9a6cbacked Yes | 63c | 125.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…68e9backed Yes | 44c | 121.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…627abacked No | 64c | 116.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 45c | 111.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 105.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 53c | 104.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 33c | 100.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…6b2abacked No | 44c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…848fbacked No | 46c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 48c | 98.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…6062backed Yes | 71c | 97.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 57c | 97.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 66c | 96.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked No | 36c | 96.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9005…39ccbacked Yes | 55c | 91.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 88.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61de…8056backed No | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 40c | 85.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…26eebacked No | 43c | 84.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…fafbbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…016fbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…d068backed No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed No | 44c | 76.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 69c | 74.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…d8ccbacked Yes | 71c | 74.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 33c | 73.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9b…e0bfbacked No | 49c | 72.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…85bcbacked Yes | 56c | 70.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…6bb6backed Yes | 63c | 68.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…a910backed No | 54c | 65.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.