Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b84316a2019d17e37153ebbcfd6a8a4ccf8ab5db10635c0f176ead6ed4f4368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 29c | 27,700$8,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,630 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 71c | 26,870$19,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,042.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 1c | 14,445$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 10c | 4,996$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,495.67 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 27c | 4,661$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.33 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked No | 2c | 4,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 38c | 4,429$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.77 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…a8acbacked No | 11c | 3,886$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…6452backed No | 2c | 3,850$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +447.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…4d6abacked No | 69c | 3,506$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492e…2fb8backed Yes | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,819$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…a549backed Yes | 46c | 2,198$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 66c | 1,652$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 24c | 1,422$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 1c | 1,370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…f68abacked No | 11c | 1,124$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…0966backed No | 75c | 1,064$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 1,033$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.16 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…d4a9backed No | 16c | 824.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 16c | 824.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 40c | 800.27$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.33 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…d633backed No | 72c | 800$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 728.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 725.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 42c | 683.01$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 42c | 640.13$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…60ffbacked No | 76c | 578.29$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…7d0abacked No | 74c | 574.14$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 5c | 530$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 5c | 518.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 494.53$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 23c | 483$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 481.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.3 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 72c | 370.53$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.68 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed No | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 30c | 347.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.83 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 293$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 71c | 290.77$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 277.28$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed No | 74c | 271.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…4f7bbacked Yes | 28c | 259.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…69a6backed No | 71c | 249.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 63c | 242$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 30c | 237.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 54c | 231.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 20c | 215.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.51 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 74c | 215$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 17c | 174.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…c624backed No | 67c | 170.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 17c | 168.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…7656backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 77c | 162$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4044backed No | 72c | 154.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 60c | 148.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…5cf0backed No | 72c | 148.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 68c | 147.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…4243backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…06ffbacked No | 73c | 142.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed No | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed No | 71c | 141.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…8449backed Yes | 20c | 140.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 75c | 133.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…ce17backed No | 57c | 132.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Yes | 31c | 132.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 33c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 60c | 124.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 123.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 122.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…51e2backed Yes | 51c | 121.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…7a87backed No | 76c | 118.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 116.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…a2a9backed No | 64c | 109.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 108.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 53c | 107.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…4b61backed No | 72c | 105.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed Yes | 32c | 104$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cf…b481backed No | 58c | 103.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df8…639cbacked No | 61c | 103.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…2264backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 77c | 96.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 43c | 93.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed No | 69c | 84.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.