Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb59650bee2289c4d1283f53ba454b5e37b86ed978c9fcfc2833ab1cb8249e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 65c | 21,700$14,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,595 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 35c | 21,700$7,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,595 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…7d0abacked Yes | 3c | 15,986$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 0c | 15,235$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…976fbacked No | 65c | 10,700$6,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,778 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 79c | 4,425$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.26 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…ce15backed Yes | 15c | 4,301$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…8db6backed No | 44c | 3,700$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 47c | 3,257$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,892$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…926cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,859$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 18c | 2,630$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 27c | 2,466$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.79 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 71c | 2,137$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.04 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…15a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,775$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 1,764$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.17 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…92fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,743$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 24c | 1,697$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…281ebacked No | 73c | 1,646$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,209$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 1,203$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.46 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 50c | 1,197$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…bf7fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,053$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 62c | 900$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 52c | 838.47$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.16 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 69c | 720.4$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 22c | 701.34$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 29c | 687.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 679.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…ab23backed No | 65c | 646.9$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…e370backed Yes | 13c | 641.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 626.87$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.66 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 28c | 622.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 619.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…7b70backed Yes | 47c | 577.19$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…981abacked No | 52c | 554.68$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 43c | 519.83$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 500.82$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 18c | 481.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 67c | 454.88$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 426.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 61c | 426.46$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 47c | 425.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 38c | 420.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 418.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 414.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 66c | 412.79$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 53c | 395.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 20c | 394.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 54c | 383.72$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…5cf0backed No | 56c | 349.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 339.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…d186backed No | 60c | 334.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 47c | 333$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…b531backed No | 73c | 330.67$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 73c | 314.42$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 313.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x932c…2951backed No | 64c | 311.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 310.12$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 19c | 301.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…b3c7backed Yes | 13c | 293.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…4dc9backed Yes | 19c | 272.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 45c | 261.91$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…69a6backed No | 72c | 253.26$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…06ffbacked No | 54c | 251.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed Yes | 56c | 249.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 12c | 244.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…5e5ebacked No | 68c | 224.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed No | 46c | 220.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…1975backed Yes | 41c | 219.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 23c | 210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 72c | 208.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…39b7backed No | 47c | 208.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 10c | 190.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…c86fbacked Yes | 66c | 189.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 63c | 189.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…c624backed No | 64c | 179.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 58c | 172.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 36c | 169.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…085cbacked No | 60c | 164.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…f895backed No | 66c | 158.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…5effbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e187backed Yes | 40c | 148.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 26c | 147.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 66c | 145.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 70c | 143.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 21c | 128.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 127.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 12c | 122.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 42c | 119.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.