TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac3c…d637backed No65c21,700$14,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5951030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Yes35c21,700$7,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5951266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+78.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3960…7d0abacked Yes3c15,986$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…4e72backed Yes0c15,235$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17fd…976fbacked No65c10,700$6,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No79c4,425$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.264355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6637…ce15backed Yes15c4,301$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407d…8db6backed No44c3,700$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…6df6backed Yes47c3,257$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+92.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,892$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.561,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e3…926cbacked Yes28c2,859$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes18c2,630$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.941729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes27c2,466$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.7914821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No71c2,137$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.0411329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…15a1backed Yes8c1,775$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes16c1,764$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.174418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb19…92fcbacked Yes2c1,743$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes24c1,697$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.442445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked No73c1,646$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c1,209$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.074928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No65c1,203$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.4615951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes50c1,197$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…bf7fbacked Yes22c1,053$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d1…c685backed No62c900$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes52c838.47$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.163839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked No69c720.4$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes22c701.34$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.124035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.42476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes29c687.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c679.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.267135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…ab23backed No65c646.9$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc881…e370backed Yes13c641.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.131827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No78c626.87$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes28c622.3$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.547140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes7c619.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.121477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c599.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e0…7b70backed Yes47c577.19$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.09425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f34…981abacked No52c554.68$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes43c519.83$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.373525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c500.82$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1432345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.34625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes18c481.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.343221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No67c454.88$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c426.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No61c426.46$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes47c425.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes38c420.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.572334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c418.83$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes12c414.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921316.1%8 W · 123 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No66c412.79$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.113161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c400$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No53c395.59$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6121160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes20c394.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.092025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes54c383.72$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.371520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd3…5cf0backed No56c349.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.874353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c339.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed No60c334.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No47c333$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.329446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1b…b531backed No73c330.67$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0554…579fbacked No73c314.42$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.421258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c313.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x932c…2951backed No64c311.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c310.12$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes19c301.48$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584219%8 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x487c…b3c7backed Yes13c293.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…4dc9backed Yes19c272.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked No45c261.91$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.853850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…69a6backed No72c253.26$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b8b…06ffbacked No54c251.12$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.38966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb391…0325backed Yes56c249.15$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes12c244.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b23…5e5ebacked No68c224.86$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.953748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d4…eb10backed No46c220.92$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.521963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb64…1975backed Yes41c219.48$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.551127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes23c210$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.812227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No72c208.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.491947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc30d…39b7backed No47c208.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.315643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes10c190.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.679125.3%23 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46fc…c86fbacked Yes66c189.75$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.481428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No63c189.02$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed4…c624backed No64c179.77$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.271172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes58c172.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes36c169.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6217128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes19c165$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3511424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d70…085cbacked No60c164.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e34…f895backed No66c158.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.221030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b54…5effbacked No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e187backed Yes40c148.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes26c147.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.956855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No66c145.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.67938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No70c143.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.773043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53d3…60eebacked No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.993330.3%10 W · 23 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes21c128.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8211226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c127.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes12c122.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.691879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed No59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.693737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked No42c119.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.43129%9 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.