TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x53d3…60ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 36.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3330.3%10 W · 23 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.65
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.11
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.55
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+300%+$900
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$177.69
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.51
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+40.9%+$61.38
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20.3
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.5%+$35.45
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+73.3%+$36.65
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.7%+$62.98
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$171.44
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$19.08
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.34
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$28.8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.04
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$18.08
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.97
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.1
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.44
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$7.02
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$8.04
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$2.86
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$2.86
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$5.96
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.44
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$6.1
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+43%+$7.3
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$6.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$3.1
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+517.3%+$517.28
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+95.8%+$16.71
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.93
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+30%+$6.09
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.64
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Philip Sekulicbacked Justin Boulais · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$37.28
Alicante: Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubasbacked Max Houkes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+124.4%+$16.63
Yokkaichi: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Yuta Shimizubacked Yu-Hsiou Hsu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+133.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$29.85
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$24.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+218.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+68%+$61.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.