TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf352…a070backed Yes74c496.16$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.653525.7%9 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes53c379.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.5317140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes47c239.7$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No47c216.34$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c204.09$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No50c195.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No17c186.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3465625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes53c155.09$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.34940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No40c151.52$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5732041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c129.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.756,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c127.97$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.792,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked No51c118.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.257855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c114.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.034,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No40c112.37$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5729953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No13c97.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c93.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.92,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes53c93.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.552,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes51c92.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2717440.8%71 W · 103 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes54c88.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.773390.9%30 W · 3 L+10.4wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c81.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c79.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c75.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes37c72.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.044,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No48c68.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.955,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No39c66.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.822,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No53c61.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes48c56.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.545733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c54.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes54c54.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.469,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No51c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0184930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes36c51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5447538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes52c49.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes47c49.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.739137.4%34 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes73c49.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.482,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c48.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No66c46.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7646667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.065,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No60c44.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6119552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes36c44.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No47c41.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5914745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No36c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.943,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes51c38.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes53c37.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No54c36.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6b3…8334backed Yes54c36.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes54c36.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.762532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e36…508fbacked No71c35.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…76c2backed No69c34.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.996852.9%36 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c34.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked No57c33.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.835354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes45c31.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.423,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No47c31.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes74c30.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.042,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No40c30.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No58c29.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0110667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes40c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9425560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes44c27.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.462,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb58…478abacked No47c26.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.525429.6%16 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33b…0b31backed No57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes56c26.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.541,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed No39c25.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2118931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked No58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes49c25.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c24.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes61c24.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5613553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No47c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccd8…6083backed No50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.924459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No66c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.189362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c21.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.551,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes56c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No64c20.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.227755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d3…60eebacked No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes68c14.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.713959%23 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes73c13.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.682,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.